Sporting Kansas City at San Diego FC
FT · Apple TV
1–0
At lock: projected SKC 1.35–3.10 SD
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 141889179
- Winner: San Diego (72%)
- Total: Over 3.5 (65%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SKC 1.35–3.10 SD · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SD att -0.06 / def -0.20 · SKC att -0.30 / def -0.44 · model SD 2.6–1.3 SKC
- Home field+0.3 goals to SD
- RecordSD 9-11-14 · SKC 7-5-22
- Market priorBlended 74% toward SD -145 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SKC | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 76'
Goal! San Diego 0, Sporting Kansas City 1. André Luiz (Sporting Kansas City) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the bottom right corner.
Game leaders
- André Luiztotalshots 7
- Wyatt MeyerPass 44
- Jansen Millerdefensiveinterventions 11
Stefan ClevelandSV 4
- Bryan Zamblétotalshots 5
Christopher McVeyPass 116- Manu Duahdefensiveinterventions 9
Pablo SisniegaSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SKC | SD | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 8 |
| Saves | 4 | 5 |
| Possession | 33.2 | 66.8 |
| SHOTS | 15 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 1 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 281 | 610 |
| Passes | 334 | 668 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 6 |
| Crosses | 4 | 21 |
| Cross % | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 56 | 50 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 32 | 33 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 7 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 6 |
| Tackles | 17 | 8 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 9 |
| Effective Clearances | 20 | 9 |
| Clearances | 20 | 9 |
At lock SKC 1.35–3.10 SD · 1.0 goals over 3.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp A. Dreyer anytime goal · SD
A. Dreyer anytime goalAndré Luiz · SKC
ForwardW. Meyer · SKC
DefenderJ. Miller · SKC
DefenderS. Cleveland · SKC
GoalkeeperB. Zamblé · SD
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · A. Dreyer anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Kansas City vs San Diego pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 58% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day