LA Galaxy at Real Salt Lake
FT · Apple TV
1–2
At lock: projected LA 1.35–1.85 RSL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 125111560
- Winner: Salt Lake (49%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LA 1.35–1.85 RSL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RSL att -0.19 / def -0.06 · LA att -0.09 / def -0.22 · model RSL 1.9–1.4 LA
- Home field+0.3 goals to RSL
- RecordRSL 13-6-15 · LA 11-11-12
- Market priorBlended 60% toward RSL -140 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| RSL | 2 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 10'
Goal! Real Salt Lake 1, LA Galaxy 0. Sergi Solans (Real Salt Lake) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Noel Caliskan with a through ball.
- GOAL1H 13'
Goal! Real Salt Lake 2, LA Galaxy 0. Zach Booth (Real Salt Lake) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner following a corner.
- OWN GOAL1H 40'
Own Goal by Luc De Fougerolles, Real Salt Lake. Real Salt Lake 2, LA Galaxy 1.
Game leaders
- Marco Reustotalshots 5
John NelsonPass 54- John Nelsondefensiveinterventions 14
JT MarcinkowskiSV 6
- Sergi Solanstotalshots 8
Noel CaliskanPass 45
Philip Quintondefensiveinterventions 12
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LA | RSL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 9 | 6 |
| Saves | 6 | 0 |
| Possession | 58.7 | 41.3 |
| SHOTS | 13 | 20 |
| ON GOAL | 0 | 9 |
| On Target % | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 450 | 301 |
| Passes | 523 | 373 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 5 |
| Crosses | 25 | 12 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 45 | 51 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 28 | 29 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 11 | 9 |
| Tackles | 15 | 12 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 15 |
| Effective Clearances | 18 | 29 |
| Clearances | 18 | 29 |
At lock LA 1.35–1.85 RSL · 0.3 goals under 3.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Reus · LA
MidfielderJ. Nelson · LA
DefenderJ. Marcinkowski · LA
GoalkeeperS. Solans · RSL
ForwardN. Caliskan · RSL
MidfielderP. Quinton · RSL
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
LA Galaxy vs Salt Lake pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day