MLSFinalSubaru Park

Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union

FT · Apple TV

1–4

TorontoPhiladelphia

Final

Toronto FC

9-12-13

Form LLWLW · 52 PF · 67 PA

Final

Philadelphia Union

14-8-12

Form WLDLD · 66 PF · 52 PA

TOR 16%Draw 18%PHI 66%

At lock: projected TOR 1.05–2.38 PHI

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 242554893

Called it

Most typical sim

TOR 1 – PHI 2

Final

TOR 1 – PHI 4

Winner: Philadelphia (67%)
Total: Under 3.5 (55%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

TOR 1.05–2.38 PHI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PHI att +0.07 / def +0.05 · TOR att -0.26 / def -0.26 · model PHI 2.5–1.0 TOR
Home field
+0.3 goals to PHI
Record
PHI 14-8-12 · TOR 9-12-13
Market prior
Blended 60% toward PHI -370 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
TOR	1	0	1
PHI	2	2	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 28'
Goal! Philadelphia Union 1, Toronto FC 0. Cavan Sullivan (Philadelphia Union) left footed shot from very close range to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Indiana Vassilev.
GOAL1H 41'
Goal! Philadelphia Union 2, Toronto FC 0. Quinn Sullivan (Philadelphia Union) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the top left corner.
GOAL1H 45'+7'
Goal! Philadelphia Union 2, Toronto FC 1. Josh Sargent (Toronto FC) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Djordje Mihailovic with a cross following a corner.
GOAL2H 58'
Goal! Philadelphia Union 3, Toronto FC 1. Cavan Sullivan (Philadelphia Union) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Quinn Sullivan following a fast break.
GOAL2H 73'
Goal! Philadelphia Union 4, Toronto FC 1. Bruno Damiani (Philadelphia Union) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the bottom right corner.

Game leaders

Djordje Mihailovic
totalshots 2
Jackson Gilman
Pass 47
Richie Laryea
defensiveinterventions 12
William Yarbrough
SV 4

Cavan Sullivan
totalshots 5
Nathan Harriel
Pass 33
Nathan Harriel
defensiveinterventions 11

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TOR	PHI
Fouls	11	15
Yellow Cards	2	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	2	4
Corner Kicks	1	6
Saves	4	0
Possession	56.9	43.1
SHOTS	6	19
ON GOAL	1	9
On Target %	0.2	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	2
Accurate Passes	280	197
Passes	358	267
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.7
Accurate Crosses	2	2
Crosses	9	13
Cross %	0.2	0.2
Long Balls	61	41
Accurate Long Balls	23	15
Long Balls %	0.4	0.4
Blocked Shots	2	3
Effective Tackles	8	11
Tackles	9	19
Tackle %	0.9	0.6
Interceptions	8	10
Effective Clearances	22	20
Clearances	22	20

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

52%

At lock TOR 1.05–2.38 PHI · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop R. Laryea · TOR
R. Laryea Over 0.5 shots
D. Mihailovic · TOR
Midfielder
J. Gilman · TOR
Defender
W. Yarbrough · TOR
Goalkeeper
C. Sullivan · PHI
Midfielder
N. Harriel · PHI
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · R. Laryea Over 0.5 shots

-115Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Toronto vs Philadelphia pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day