Atlanta United FC at Red Bull New York
FT · Apple TV
0–3
At lock: projected ATL 1.24–1.74 RBNY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2256310458
- Winner: Red Bull NY (49%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (65%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ATL 1.24–1.74 RBNY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RBNY att -0.23 / def -0.14 · ATL att -0.33 / def -0.23 · model RBNY 1.8–1.2 ATL
- Home field+0.3 goals to RBNY
- RecordRBNY 12-6-16 · ATL 9-6-19
- Market priorBlended 60% toward RBNY +105 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| RBNY | 1 | 2 | 3 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 31'
Goal! New York Red Bulls 1, Atlanta United 0. Adri Mehmeti (New York Red Bulls) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the high centre of the goal.
- GOAL2H 54'
Goal! New York Red Bulls 2, Atlanta United 0. Cade Cowell (New York Red Bulls) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Sekou Kone with a through ball.Goal confirmed following VAR Review.
- GOAL2H 81'
Goal! New York Red Bulls 3, Atlanta United 0. Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty (New York Red Bulls) from a free kick with a right footed shot to the top right corner.
Game leaders
- Giuliano Galoppototalshots 2
- Júnior AlonsoPass 51
- Paulo Díazdefensiveinterventions 15
- Jayden HibbertSV 4
- Julian Halltotalshots 3
- Sekou KonePass 58
- Julián Bazándefensiveinterventions 12
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ATL | RBNY | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 15 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 5 |
| Saves | 4 | 0 |
| Possession | 49.8 | 50.2 |
| SHOTS | 8 | 14 |
| ON GOAL | 0 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 341 | 354 |
| Passes | 424 | 428 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 3 |
| Crosses | 16 | 14 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 63 | 32 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 32 | 10 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 8 | 15 |
| Tackles | 18 | 17 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 5 |
| Effective Clearances | 18 | 21 |
| Clearances | 18 | 21 |
At lock ATL 1.24–1.74 RBNY · 0.5 goals under 3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Ruvalcaba anytime goal · RBNY
J. Ruvalcaba anytime goalG. Galoppo · ATL
MidfielderJ. Alonso · ATL
DefenderP. Díaz · ATL
DefenderJ. Hibbert · ATL
GoalkeeperJ. Hall · RBNY
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · J. Ruvalcaba anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Atlanta vs Red Bull NY pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day