Nashville SC at FC Cincinnati
FT · Apple TV
2–0
At lock: projected NSH 2.05–1.40 CIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2021423792
- Winner: Nashville (53%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NSH 2.05–1.40 CIN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CIN att -0.02 / def -0.26 · NSH att +0.02 / def +0.31 · model CIN 1.3–1.9 NSH
- Home field+0.3 goals to CIN
- RecordCIN 12-10-12 · NSH 23-8-3
- Market priorBlended 60% toward NSH +130 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 61'
Goal! FC Cincinnati 0, Nashville SC 1. Sam Surridge (Nashville SC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Andy Nájar with a through ball.
- GOAL2H 86'
Goal! FC Cincinnati 0, Nashville SC 2. Sam Surridge (Nashville SC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Patrick Yazbek with a through ball following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Sam Surridgetotalshots 5
Jack MaherPass 64- Maxwell Woledzidefensiveinterventions 14
- Brian SchwakeSV 5
Evandertotalshots 4- Samuel GidiPass 61
Miles Robinsondefensiveinterventions 9
Roman CelentanoSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NSH | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 6 | 13 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 5 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 6 |
| Saves | 5 | 3 |
| Possession | 51 | 49 |
| SHOTS | 14 | 14 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 408 | 365 |
| Passes | 478 | 448 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 4 |
| Crosses | 9 | 19 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 69 | 53 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 34 | 24 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 6 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 11 |
| Tackles | 24 | 16 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 6 |
| Effective Clearances | 27 | 11 |
| Clearances | 27 | 11 |
At lock NSH 2.05–1.40 CIN · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitS. Surridge · NSH
ForwardJ. Maher · NSH
DefenderM. Woledzi · NSH
DefenderB. Schwake · NSH
GoalkeeperEvander · CIN
MidfielderS. Gidi · CIN
Midfielder
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Nashville vs Cincinnati pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day