Columbus Crew at Chicago Fire FC
FT · Apple TV
4–3
At lock: projected CLB 1.55–1.94 CHI
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2054979030
- Winner: Chicago (47%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CLB 1.55–1.94 CHI · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CHI att +0.06 / def -0.19 · CLB att +0.02 / def -0.04 · model CHI 2.0–1.8 CLB
- Home field+0.3 goals to CHI
- RecordCHI 16-7-11 · CLB 14-5-15
- Market priorBlended 60% toward CHI -125 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLB | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| CHI | 3 | 0 | 3 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 8'
Goal! Chicago Fire FC 1, Columbus Crew 0. Robert Lewandowski (Chicago Fire FC) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.
- GOAL1H 16'
Goal! Chicago Fire FC 1, Columbus Crew 1. Gonzalo Tapia (Columbus Crew) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Taha Habroune.
- GOAL1H 22'
Goal! Chicago Fire FC 2, Columbus Crew 1. Robert Lewandowski (Chicago Fire FC) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.
- GOAL1H 23'
Goal! Chicago Fire FC 2, Columbus Crew 2. Anass Zaroury (Columbus Crew) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner.
- GOAL1H 45'+4'
Goal! Chicago Fire FC 3, Columbus Crew 2. Maren Haile-Selassie (Chicago Fire FC) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal.
- GOAL2H 62'
Goal! Chicago Fire FC 3, Columbus Crew 3. Gonzalo Tapia (Columbus Crew) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Malte Amundsen with a through ball.
- GOAL2H 90'+3'
Goal! Chicago Fire FC 3, Columbus Crew 4. Brais Méndez (Columbus Crew) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner.
Game leaders
- Gonzalo Tapiatotalshots 4
- Taha HabrounePass 47
Malte Amundsendefensiveinterventions 11
Patrick SchulteSV 3
- Robert Lewandowskitotalshots 4
- Andreas Hanche-OlsenPass 67
- Andreas Hanche-Olsendefensiveinterventions 14
Chris BradySV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLB | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 14 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 6 |
| Saves | 3 | 2 |
| Possession | 46.9 | 53.1 |
| SHOTS | 11 | 14 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 2 |
| Accurate Passes | 368 | 438 |
| Passes | 441 | 503 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 5 |
| Crosses | 15 | 17 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 42 | 47 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 21 | 28 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 14 | 16 |
| Tackles | 19 | 23 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 4 |
| Effective Clearances | 22 | 18 |
| Clearances | 22 | 18 |
At lock CLB 1.55–1.94 CHI · 0.01 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp R. Lewandowski · CHI
R. Lewandowski anytime goalG. Tapia · CLB
ForwardT. Habroune · CLB
MidfielderM. Amundsen · CLB
DefenderP. Schulte · CLB
GoalkeeperA. Hanche-Olsen · CHI
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · R. Lewandowski anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Columbus vs Chicago pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day