MLSFinalStade Saputo

Vancouver Whitecaps at CF Montréal

FT · Apple TV

2–0

VancouverCF Montréal

Final

Vancouver Whitecaps

19-7-8

Form WWWLW · 74 PF · 34 PA

Final

CF Montréal

6-8-20

Form LDLLD · 37 PF · 69 PA

VAN 62%Draw 21%MTL 17%

At lock: projected VAN 2.05–0.98 MTL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:18 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2071756649

Called it

Most typical sim

VAN 2 – MTL 1

Final

VAN 2 – MTL 0

Winner: Vancouver (62%)
Total: Under 3.5 (64%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

VAN 2.05–0.98 MTL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MTL att -0.47 / def -0.31 · VAN att +0.15 / def +0.21 · model MTL 0.9–2.3 VAN
Home field
+0.3 goals to MTL
Record
MTL 6-8-20 · VAN 19-7-8
Market prior
Blended 60% toward VAN -125 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
VAN	0	2	2
MTL	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL2H 50'
Goal! CF Montréal 0, Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1. Cheikh Sabaly (Vancouver Whitecaps FC) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner.
GOAL2H 83'
Goal! CF Montréal 0, Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2. Mihail Gherasimencov (Vancouver Whitecaps FC) left footed shot from a difficult angle on the left to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Bruno Caicedo.

Game leaders

Rayan Elloumi
totalshots 4
Ranko Veselinovic
Pass 82
Yohei Takaoka
defensiveinterventions 10
Yohei Takaoka
SV 3

Wikelman Carmona
totalshots 2
Matthew Longstaff
Pass 47
Brayan Vera
defensiveinterventions 15
Samsy Keita
SV 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	VAN	MTL
Fouls	15	15
Yellow Cards	3	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	2
Corner Kicks	5	4
Saves	3	6
Possession	63.8	36.2
SHOTS	17	8
ON GOAL	8	3
On Target %	0.5	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	526	264
Passes	593	332
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.8
Accurate Crosses	4	3
Crosses	20	11
Cross %	0.2	0.3
Long Balls	45	36
Accurate Long Balls	28	14
Long Balls %	0.6	0.4
Blocked Shots	2	1
Effective Tackles	12	14
Tackles	22	20
Tackle %	0.5	0.7
Interceptions	12	10
Effective Clearances	10	26
Clearances	10	26

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

56%

At lock VAN 2.05–0.98 MTL · 0.5 goals under 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

R. Elloumi · VAN
Forward
R. Veselinovic · VAN
Defender
Y. Takaoka · VAN
Goalkeeper
W. Carmona · MTL
Midfielder
M. Longstaff · MTL
Midfielder
B. Vera · MTL
Defender

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Vancouver vs CF Montréal pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day