MLSFinalProvidence Park

Houston Dynamo FC at Portland Timbers

FT · FS1

1–3

HoustonPortland

Final

Houston Dynamo FC

14-9-10

Form LLWDD · 43 PF · 43 PA

Final

Portland Timbers

12-7-14

Form WWWWD · 62 PF · 61 PA

HOU 28%Draw 26%POR 46%

At lock: projected HOU 1.10–1.50 POR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2088534268

Called it

Most typical sim

HOU 1 – POR 1

Final

HOU 1 – POR 3

Winner: Portland (47%)
Spread: HOU +0.5 covers (53%)
Total: Under 2.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

HOU 1.10–1.50 POR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): POR att -0.05 / def -0.17 · HOU att -0.37 / def +0.07 · model POR 1.6–1.2 HOU
Home field
+0.3 goals to POR
Record
POR 12-7-14 · HOU 14-9-10
Market prior
Blended 60% toward POR -140 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
HOU	0	1	1
POR	1	2	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 25'
Goal! Portland Timbers 1, Houston Dynamo FC 0. David da Costa (Portland Timbers) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Vincent Janssen.
GOAL2H 65'
Goal! Portland Timbers 2, Houston Dynamo FC 0. Kristoffer Velde (Portland Timbers) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Vincent Janssen following a fast break.
GOAL2H 71'
Goal! Portland Timbers 2, Houston Dynamo FC 1. Agustín Bouzat (Houston Dynamo FC) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Duncan McGuire.
GOAL2H 78'
Goal! Portland Timbers 3, Houston Dynamo FC 1. Vincent Janssen (Portland Timbers) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by David da Costa with a cross following a corner.

Game leaders

Lawrence Ennali
totalshots 2
Lucas Halter
Pass 79
Lucas Halter
defensiveinterventions 8
Jonathan Bond
SV 4

Ian Smith
totalshots 3
Joel Waterman
Pass 78
Joel Waterman
defensiveinterventions 9

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HOU	POR
Fouls	12	11
Yellow Cards	2	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	2
Corner Kicks	6	6
Saves	4	0
Possession	54.6	45.4
SHOTS	8	16
ON GOAL	1	6
On Target %	0.1	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	475	379
Passes	534	438
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.9
Accurate Crosses	5	6
Crosses	14	16
Cross %	0.4	0.4
Long Balls	42	40
Accurate Long Balls	19	17
Long Balls %	0.5	0.4
Blocked Shots	5	2
Effective Tackles	7	10
Tackles	16	15
Tackle %	0.4	0.7
Interceptions	5	4
Effective Clearances	22	21
Clearances	22	21

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

59%

At lock HOU 1.10–1.50 POR · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop V. Janssen anytime goal · POR
V. Janssen anytime goal
L. Ennali · HOU
Forward
L. Halter · HOU
Defender
J. Bond · HOU
Goalkeeper
I. Smith · POR
Defender
J. Waterman · POR
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · V. Janssen anytime goal

+140Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Houston vs Portland pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day