MLSFinalGillette Stadium

Inter Miami CF at New England Revolution

FT · Apple TV

2–1

MiamiNew England

Final

Inter Miami CF

16-11-6

Form DWDLW · 80 PF · 59 PA

Final

New England Revolution

18-4-11

Form LLWWW · 55 PF · 47 PA

MIA 47%Draw 21%NE 32%

At lock: projected MIA 2.02–1.63 NE

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2105311887

Called it

Most typical sim

MIA 2 – NE 2

Final

MIA 2 – NE 1

Winner: Miami (47%)
Spread: NE +0.5 covers (53%)
Total: Under 3.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

MIA 2.02–1.63 NE · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NE att -0.19 / def -0.07 · MIA att +0.27 / def -0.18 · model NE 1.8–2.0 MIA
Home field
+0.3 goals to NE
Record
NE 18-4-11 · MIA 16-11-6
Market prior
Blended 60% toward MIA +115 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
MIA	0	2	2
NE	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL2H 53'
Goal! New England Revolution 1, Inter Miami CF 0. Dániel Gazdag (New England Revolution) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Ilay Feingold.
GOAL2H 69'
Goal! New England Revolution 1, Inter Miami CF 1. Germán Berterame (Inter Miami CF) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Lionel Messi with a headed pass.
GOAL2H 83'
Goal! New England Revolution 1, Inter Miami CF 2. Lionel Messi (Inter Miami CF) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Telasco Segovia.

Game leaders

Germán Berterame
totalshots 5
Casemiro
Pass 69
Ian Fray
defensiveinterventions 13
Dayne St. Clair
SV 2

Dániel Gazdag
totalshots 3
Brooklyn Raines
Pass 74
William Sands
defensiveinterventions 8
Matt Turner
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MIA	NE
Fouls	16	6
Yellow Cards	3	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	1
Corner Kicks	1	7
Saves	2	3
Possession	45.1	54.9
SHOTS	14	13
ON GOAL	6	3
On Target %	0.4	0.2
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	424	536
Passes	481	583
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	6
Crosses	8	17
Cross %	0.3	0.4
Long Balls	37	44
Accurate Long Balls	19	27
Long Balls %	0.5	0.6
Blocked Shots	2	6
Effective Tackles	11	5
Tackles	18	6
Tackle %	0.6	0.8
Interceptions	8	6
Effective Clearances	16	12
Clearances	16	12

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

51%

At lock MIA 2.02–1.63 NE · 0.1 goals over 3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop L. Messi anytime goal · MIA
L. Messi anytime goal
G. Berterame · MIA
Forward
Casemiro · MIA
Midfielder
I. Fray · MIA
Defender
D. St. Clair · MIA
Goalkeeper
D. Gazdag · NE
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · L. Messi anytime goal

-115Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Miami vs New England pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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