Red Bull New York at Nashville SC
FT · Apple TV
2–3
At lock: projected RBNY 0.92–2.35 NSH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2038054316
- Winner: Nashville (70%)
- Spread: RBNY +1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RBNY 0.92–2.35 NSH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NSH att +0.02 / def +0.31 · RBNY att -0.23 / def -0.14 · model NSH 2.1–0.8 RBNY
- Home field+0.3 goals to NSH
- RecordNSH 22-8-3 · RBNY 11-6-16
- Market priorBlended 60% toward NSH -250 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBNY | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NSH | 1 | 2 | 3 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 34'
Goal! Nashville SC 0, New York Red Bulls 1. Julian Hall (New York Red Bulls) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Adri Mehmeti with a through ball.
- GOAL1H 40'
Goal! Nashville SC 0, New York Red Bulls 2. Rafael Mosquera (New York Red Bulls) left footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Cade Cowell following a fast break.
- OWN GOAL1H 45'
Own Goal by Tim Parker, New York Red Bulls. Nashville SC 1, New York Red Bulls 2.
- OWN GOAL2H 78'
Own Goal by Julián Bazán, New York Red Bulls. Nashville SC 2, New York Red Bulls 2.
- GOAL2H 90'+1'
Goal! Nashville SC 3, New York Red Bulls 2. Sam Surridge (Nashville SC) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Cristian Espinoza with a cross following a corner.
Game leaders
- Julian Halltotalshots 3
- Sekou KonePass 41
Devin Padelforddefensiveinterventions 14- Ethan HorvathSV 6
- Sam Surridgetotalshots 7
- Maxwell WoledziPass 67
- Jeisson Palaciosdefensiveinterventions 17
- Brian SchwakeSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RBNY | NSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 5 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 12 |
| Saves | 6 | 2 |
| Possession | 38.7 | 61.3 |
| SHOTS | 14 | 21 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 1 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 243 | 430 |
| Passes | 323 | 504 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 9 |
| Crosses | 10 | 27 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 49 | 66 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 16 | 40 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 6 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 16 | 5 |
| Tackles | 22 | 9 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 6 |
| Effective Clearances | 41 | 21 |
| Clearances | 41 | 21 |
At lock RBNY 0.92–2.35 NSH · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Hall · RBNY
ForwardS. Kone · RBNY
MidfielderD. Padelford · RBNY
DefenderE. Horvath · RBNY
GoalkeeperS. Surridge · NSH
ForwardM. Woledzi · NSH
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Red Bull NY vs Nashville pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day