Lorient at Angers
Now LOR 1.48–1.02 ANG · pick locked earlier at Under 2.5; model has since moved
Projected LOR 1.48–1.02 ANG
Model vs market
Gap: -5 pts of win %, +0.01 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Lorient vs Angers prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Lorient 1.5, Angers 1.0. Model win probability: Angers 25%, Lorient 47%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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