Le Havre AC at Marseille
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At lock HAC 0.99–2.35 OLM · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected HAC 0.99–2.35 OLM
Model vs market
Gap: -6 pts of win %, -0.50 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Le Havre AC vs Marseille prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Le Havre AC 1.0, Marseille 2.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Marseille 66%, Le Havre AC 14%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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