Strasbourg at Stade Rennais
At lock STR 1.53–2.04 REN · 0.1 goals over 3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected STR 1.53–2.04 REN
Model vs market
Gap: -8 pts of win %, +0.22 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
Strasbourg vs Rennes prediction · Oct 25, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Strasbourg 1.5, Rennes 2.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Rennes 48%, Strasbourg 28%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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