Liga MXSat 6:00 PM CTEstadio León

Toluca at León

Sat 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

57%

At lock TOL 1.94–1.42 LEO · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

F. Viñas · TOL
Forward
D. Arcila · LEO
Midfielder

Toluca

6-4-3

Form DDLDL · 28 PF · 18 PA

1.94

Projected

León

6-3-4

Form DLDWD · 20 PF · 17 PA

1.42

TOL 49%Draw 24%LEO 27%

At lock: projected TOL 1.94–1.42 LEO · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LEO win

38%

35% (no-vig)

Total

3.08

3.5

Gap: +3 pts of win %, -0.42 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2030 vs old model 0.2266. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

TOL 1.94–1.42 LEO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LEO att -0.20 / def -0.21 · TOL att +0.13 / def +0.07 · model LEO 1.3–1.8 TOL
Home field
+0.3 goals to LEO
Record
LEO 6-3-4 · TOL 6-4-3
Market prior
Blended 64% toward TOL -105 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Federico Viñas
goals 6
Federico Viñas
goalsleaders 6

Daniel Arcila
goals 4
Daniel Arcila
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TOL	LEO
Goal Difference	10	3
Total Goals	28	20
Assists	18	10
Goals Against	18	17

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

F. Viñas anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOL
+130
43%
A. Vega anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOL
+225
31%
J. Guevara anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEO
+2500
6%

Toluca vs León prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Toluca 1.9, León 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: León 27%, Toluca 49%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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