Liga MXSat 8:00 PM CTEstadio BBVA

Guadalajara at Monterrey

Sat 8:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

55%

At lock GDL 1.14–1.49 MTY · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

R. Marín · GDL
Forward
L. Ocampos · MTY
Midfielder

Guadalajara

6-5-2

Form DDDLD · 20 PF · 12 PA

1.14

Projected

Monterrey

6-2-4

Form DWDLW · 23 PF · 17 PA

1.49

GDL 28%Draw 28%MTY 44%

At lock: projected GDL 1.14–1.49 MTY · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

MTY win

52%

55% (no-vig)

Total

2.86

2.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, +0.36 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2030 vs old model 0.2266. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

GDL 1.14–1.49 MTY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MTY att +0.03 / def -0.09 · GDL att -0.02 / def +0.16 · model MTY 1.5–1.4 GDL
Home field
+0.3 goals to MTY
Record
MTY 6-2-4 · GDL 6-5-2
Market prior
Blended 65% toward MTY +150 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ricardo Marín
goals 4
Ricardo Marín
goalsleaders 4

Lucas Ocampos
goals 6
Lucas Ocampos
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GDL	MTY
Goal Difference	8	6
Total Goals	20	23
Assists	15	17
Goals Against	12	17

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

R. Alvarado anytime goal
Anytime goal · GDL
+320
24%

Guadalajara vs Monterrey prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Guadalajara 1.1, Monterrey 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Monterrey 44%, Guadalajara 28%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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