Liga MXFinalEstadio Olímpico Universitario

Tigres UANL at Pumas UNAM

Final

Tigres UANL

3-7-5

Form DLDWW · 16 PF · 20 PA

Final

Pumas UNAM

4-6-5

Form DLWDL · 21 PF · 24 PA

UANL 27%Draw 29%UNAM 45%

Model: UANL 1.08–1.47 UNAM

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 23, 11:19 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1208331926

Exact score

Most typical sim

UANL 1 – UNAM 1

Final

UANL 1 – UNAM 1

Winner: Tigres (42%)
Spread: UNAM +0.5 covers (58%)
Total: Under 2.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)0

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

UANL 1.08–1.47 UNAM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): UNAM att -0.02 / def -0.08 · UANL att -0.14 / def +0.14 · model UNAM 1.4–1.2 UANL
Home field
+0.3 goals to UNAM
Record
UNAM 4-6-5 · UANL 3-7-5
Market prior
Blended 64% toward UNAM +105 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
UANL	0	1	1
UNAM	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL2H 56'
Goal! Pumas UNAM 1, Tigres 0. Robert Morales (Pumas UNAM) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Pablo Bennevendo with a cross.
GOAL2H 76'
Goal! Pumas UNAM 1, Tigres 1. Juan Brunetta (Tigres) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.

Game leaders

Juan Brunetta
totalshots 5
Fernando Gorriarán
Pass 56
Alan Franco
defensiveinterventions 11
Nahuel Guzmán
SV 2

Robert Morales
totalshots 5
Adalberto Carrasquilla
Pass 41
Pablo Bennevendo
defensiveinterventions 11
Keylor Navas
SV 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UANL	UNAM
Fouls	11	17
Yellow Cards	3	3
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	5	0
Corner Kicks	2	6
Saves	2	7
Possession	56.1	43.9
SHOTS	14	16
ON GOAL	8	3
On Target %	0.6	0.2
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	394	275
Passes	461	346
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.8
Accurate Crosses	3	9
Crosses	17	29
Cross %	0.2	0.3
Long Balls	44	61
Accurate Long Balls	19	28
Long Balls %	0.4	0.5
Blocked Shots	1	5
Effective Tackles	13	6
Tackles	17	10
Tackle %	0.8	0.6
Interceptions	5	3
Effective Clearances	31	20
Clearances	31	20

Computer pick · Spread

UANL +0.5

54%

UANL 1.08–1.47 UNAM · UNAM by 0.4 goals vs UANL +0.5

Hit

Players

J. Brunetta · UANL
Midfielder
F. Gorriarán · UANL
Midfielder
A. Franco · UANL
Defender
N. Guzmán · UANL
Goalkeeper
R. Morales · UNAM
Forward
A. Carrasquilla · UNAM
Midfielder

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Tigres vs UNAM pick result · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UANL +0.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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