Liga MXSun 8:00 PM CTEstadio Corregidora

Cruz Azul at Querétaro

Sun 8:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

51%

At lock CAZ 1.54–1.04 QRO · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

G. Fernandez · CAZ
Forward
A. Avila · QRO
Forward

Cruz Azul

7-2-4

Form DWDDL · 29 PF · 22 PA

1.54

Projected

Querétaro

6-2-4

Form DLWWD · 16 PF · 15 PA

1.04

CAZ 48%Draw 28%QRO 24%

At lock: projected CAZ 1.54–1.04 QRO · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

QRO win

38%

36% (no-vig)

Total

2.73

2.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.23 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2030 vs old model 0.2266. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

CAZ 1.54–1.04 QRO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): QRO att -0.35 / def -0.05 · CAZ att +0.18 / def +0.05 · model QRO 1.1–1.6 CAZ
Home field
+0.3 goals to QRO
Record
QRO 6-2-4 · CAZ 7-2-4
Market prior
Blended 65% toward CAZ +100 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gabriel Fernandez
goals 5
Gabriel Fernandez
goalsleaders 5

Ali Avila
goals 5
Ali Avila
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CAZ	QRO
Goal Difference	7	1
Total Goals	29	16
Assists	24	10
Goals Against	22	15

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

I. Benito anytime goal
Anytime goal · QRO
+800
11%
W. Ditta anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAZ
+2000
6%
É. Lira anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAZ
+2500
6%

Cruz Azul vs Queretaro prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Cruz Azul 1.5, Queretaro 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Queretaro 24%, Cruz Azul 48%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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