Liga MXFinalEstadio Victoria

Tijuana at Necaxa

0–1

TijuanaNecaxa

Final

Tijuana

5-7-4

Form LDDWD · 25 PF · 22 PA

Final

Necaxa

3-4-9

Form WLDLL · 17 PF · 28 PA

TIJ 43%Draw 24%NCX 33%

At lock: projected TIJ 1.61–1.40 NCX

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 7:43 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1224815355

Missed · off by 2

Most typical sim

TIJ 2 – NCX 1

Final

TIJ 0 – NCX 1

Winner: Tijuana (43%)
Total: Over 2.5 (58%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

TIJ 1.61–1.40 NCX · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NCX att -0.26 / def -0.26 · TIJ att -0.09 / def -0.05 · model NCX 1.3–1.5 TIJ
Home field
+0.3 goals to NCX
Record
NCX 3-4-9 · TIJ 5-7-4
Market prior
Blended 64% toward NCX +155 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
TIJ	0	0	0
NCX	1	0	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 12'
Goal! Necaxa 1, Club Tijuana 0. Danny Leyva (Necaxa) right footed shot from outside the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Lorenzo Faravelli with a cross following a corner.

Game leaders

Ignacio Rivero
totalshots 4
Jackson Porozo
Pass 64
Jackson Porozo
defensiveinterventions 9
Antonio Rodríguez
SV 4

Miguel Rodríguez
totalshots 5
Kaiky Naves
Pass 45
Kaiky Naves
defensiveinterventions 19
Javier Orantes
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TIJ	NCX
Fouls	8	7
Yellow Cards	2	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	2	1
Corner Kicks	6	5
Saves	4	3
Possession	58.4	41.6
SHOTS	18	17
ON GOAL	3	5
On Target %	0.2	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	434	299
Passes	493	369
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.8
Accurate Crosses	8	5
Crosses	36	8
Cross %	0.2	0.6
Long Balls	55	66
Accurate Long Balls	37	30
Long Balls %	0.7	0.5
Blocked Shots	6	5
Effective Tackles	4	10
Tackles	8	17
Tackle %	0.5	0.6
Interceptions	4	4
Effective Clearances	14	33
Clearances	14	33

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

61%

At lock TIJ 1.61–1.40 NCX · 0.5 goals under 3.5 · 61% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop G. Mora · TIJ
G. Mora Over 0.5 SOT
I. Rivero · TIJ
Midfielder
J. Porozo · TIJ
Defender
A. Rodríguez · TIJ
Goalkeeper
M. Rodríguez · NCX
Midfielder
K. Naves · NCX
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · G. Mora Over 0.5 SOT

-115Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Tijuana vs Necaxa pick result · Nov 6, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 61% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Liga MX picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day