Liga MXFinalEstadio Banorte

Santos at Atlante

2–0

SantosAtlante

Final

Santos

8-1-7

Form WWLWW · 23 PF · 20 PA

Final

Atlante

3-5-8

Form LLLWL · 16 PF · 26 PA

SAN 25%Draw 23%ATL 52%

At lock: projected SAN 1.14–1.77 ATL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 9:44 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1208037736

Missed · off by 3

Most typical sim

SAN 1 – ATL 2

Final

SAN 2 – ATL 0

Winner: Atlante (52%)
Total: Over 2.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

SAN 1.14–1.77 ATL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATL att -0.23 / def -0.18 · SAN att -0.24 / def -0.22 · model ATL 1.6–1.2 SAN
Home field
+0.3 goals to ATL
Record
ATL 3-5-8 · SAN 8-1-7
Market prior
Blended 64% toward ATL +110 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
SAN	0	2	2
ATL	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL2H 67'
Goal! Atlante 0, Santos Laguna 1. Tahiel Jiménez (Santos Laguna) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Ezequiel Bullaude.
GOAL2H 77'
Goal! Atlante 0, Santos Laguna 2. Esteban Lozano (Santos Laguna) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Mauricio Cuevas following a fast break.

Game leaders

Esteban Lozano
totalshots 7
Felipe Sanchez
Pass 95
Franco Pardo
defensiveinterventions 12
Carlos Acevedo
SV 5

Martín Sarrafiore
totalshots 5
Nicolás Carrera
Pass 30
Nicolás Carrera
defensiveinterventions 16
Óscar Jiménez
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SAN	ATL
Fouls	10	13
Yellow Cards	2	0
Red Cards	0	2
Offsides	1	4
Corner Kicks	6	3
Saves	5	1
Possession	68.6	31.4
SHOTS	12	18
ON GOAL	3	5
On Target %	0.3	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	574	239
Passes	654	299
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.8
Accurate Crosses	3	3
Crosses	20	5
Cross %	0.2	0.6
Long Balls	60	41
Accurate Long Balls	29	15
Long Balls %	0.5	0.4
Blocked Shots	5	5
Effective Tackles	17	13
Tackles	23	18
Tackle %	0.7	0.7
Interceptions	4	9
Effective Clearances	13	24
Clearances	13	24

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

61%

At lock SAN 1.14–1.77 ATL · 0.6 goals under 3.5 · 61% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop F. Sanchez · SAN
F. Sanchez Over 0.5 shots
E. Lozano · SAN
Forward
F. Pardo · SAN
Defender
C. Acevedo · SAN
Goalkeeper
M. Sarrafiore · ATL
Midfielder
N. Carrera · ATL
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · F. Sanchez Over 0.5 shots

+120Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Santos vs Atlante pick result · Nov 6, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 61% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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