Liga MXFinalEstadio Universitario

Cruz Azul at Tigres UANL

3–2

Cruz AzulTigres

Final

Cruz Azul

10-2-4

Form WWWWW · 37 PF · 26 PA

Final

Tigres UANL

3-6-7

Form LLDLD · 17 PF · 25 PA

CAZ 45%Draw 25%UANL 30%

At lock: projected CAZ 1.56–1.22 UANL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1174482498

Called it

Most typical sim

CAZ 2 – UANL 1

Final

CAZ 3 – UANL 2

Winner: Cruz Azul (45%)
Spread: UANL +0.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 2.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

CAZ 1.56–1.22 UANL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): UANL att -0.15 / def +0.08 · CAZ att +0.23 / def +0.04 · model UANL 1.4–1.5 CAZ
Home field
+0.3 goals to UANL
Record
UANL 3-6-7 · CAZ 10-2-4
Market prior
Blended 64% toward CAZ +100 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
CAZ	1	2	3
UANL	1	1	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 24'
Goal! Tigres 0, Cruz Azul 1. Nicolás Ibáñez (Cruz Azul) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Andrés Montaño.
GOAL1H 39'
Goal! Tigres 1, Cruz Azul 1. Juan Brunetta (Tigres) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Fernando Gorriarán.
GOAL2H 51'
Goal! Tigres 1, Cruz Azul 2. Andrés Montaño (Cruz Azul) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the centre of the goal.
GOAL2H 65'
Goal! Tigres 2, Cruz Azul 2. Guillermo Martínez (Tigres) left footed shot from very close range to the bottom left corner.
GOAL2H 78'
Goal! Tigres 2, Cruz Azul 3. Carlos Rotondi (Cruz Azul) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Jeremy Márquez with a cross.

Game leaders

Nicolás Ibáñez
totalshots 4
Ángel Márquez
Pass 38
Jesús Orozco
defensiveinterventions 13
Kevin Mier
SV 6

Juan Brunetta
totalshots 4
César Araujo
Pass 56
Vladimir Loroña
defensiveinterventions 11
Nahuel Guzmán
SV 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CAZ	UANL
Fouls	13	13
Yellow Cards	4	3
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	2	0
Corner Kicks	4	10
Saves	6	4
Possession	45.5	54.5
SHOTS	18	19
ON GOAL	7	8
On Target %	0.4	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	1	0
Accurate Passes	318	388
Passes	397	462
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	5	6
Crosses	9	24
Cross %	0.6	0.3
Long Balls	46	56
Accurate Long Balls	18	30
Long Balls %	0.4	0.5
Blocked Shots	3	2
Effective Tackles	18	15
Tackles	27	18
Tackle %	0.7	0.8
Interceptions	6	10
Effective Clearances	29	14
Clearances	29	14

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

56%

At lock CAZ 1.56–1.22 UANL · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop É. Lira · CAZ
É. Lira Over 0.5 shots
N. Ibáñez · CAZ
Forward
Á. Márquez · CAZ
Midfielder
J. Orozco · CAZ
Defender
K. Mier · CAZ
Goalkeeper
J. Brunetta · UANL
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · É. Lira Over 0.5 shots

-120Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Cruz Azul vs Tigres pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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