Liga MXFinalEstadio Olímpico Universitario

América at Pumas UNAM

2–2

AméricaUNAM

Final

América

8-6-2

Form DDDLW · 38 PF · 23 PA

Final

Pumas UNAM

5-6-5

Form DWDLW · 24 PF · 26 PA

AME 46%Draw 24%UNAM 30%

At lock: projected AME 1.66–1.28 UNAM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1140927260

Missed · off by 1

Most typical sim

AME 2 – UNAM 1

Final

AME 2 – UNAM 2

Winner: América (47%)
Spread: UNAM +0.5 covers (53%)
Total: Over 2.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

AME 1.66–1.28 UNAM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): UNAM att -0.01 / def -0.08 · AME att +0.17 / def +0.10 · model UNAM 1.5–1.7 AME
Home field
+0.3 goals to UNAM
Record
UNAM 5-6-5 · AME 8-6-2
Market prior
Blended 64% toward AME +130 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
AME	1	1	2
UNAM	1	1	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 3'
Goal! Pumas UNAM 0, Club América 1. Álex Zendejas (Club América) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Óscar Perea with a cross.
GOAL1H 4'
Goal! Pumas UNAM 1, Club América 1. César Huerta (Pumas UNAM) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Uriel Antuna with a cross.
GOAL2H 72'
Goal! Pumas UNAM 1, Club América 2. Henry Martín (Club América) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the top right corner.
GOAL2H 77'
Goal! Pumas UNAM 2, Club América 2. Robert Morales (Pumas UNAM) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the top right corner.

Game leaders

Érick Sánchez
totalshots 4
Alan Cervantes
Pass 74
Israel Reyes
defensiveinterventions 12
Ángel Malagón
SV 1

César Huerta
totalshots 5
Pedro Vite
Pass 31
Rubén Duarte
defensiveinterventions 14

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AME	UNAM
Fouls	14	18
Yellow Cards	3	6
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	4	2
Corner Kicks	2	4
Saves	1	0
Possession	65	35
SHOTS	12	16
ON GOAL	2	3
On Target %	0.2	0.2
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	1	1
Accurate Passes	458	210
Passes	547	286
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.7
Accurate Crosses	6	2
Crosses	11	18
Cross %	0.5	0.1
Long Balls	71	67
Accurate Long Balls	41	24
Long Balls %	0.6	0.4
Blocked Shots	2	8
Effective Tackles	8	4
Tackles	9	13
Tackle %	0.9	0.3
Interceptions	7	10
Effective Clearances	17	17
Clearances	17	17

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

59%

At lock AME 1.66–1.28 UNAM · 0.4 goals over 2.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop A. Zendejas · AME
A. Zendejas Over 2.5 shots
É. Sánchez · AME
Midfielder
A. Cervantes · AME
Midfielder
I. Reyes · AME
Defender
Á. Malagón · AME
Goalkeeper
C. Huerta · UNAM
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · A. Zendejas Over 2.5 shots

+115Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

América vs UNAM pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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