EredivisieSat 9:30 AM CTStadion Galgenwaard

PEC Zwolle at FC Utrecht

Sat 9:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

53%

At lock PEC 1.44–2.12 UTR · 0.1 goals over 3.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

K. Kostons · PEC
Forward
A. Stepanov · UTR
Forward

PEC Zwolle

2-1-6

Form DLLLD · 10 PF · 22 PA

1.44

Projected

FC Utrecht

3-2-4

Form WWLWD · 16 PF · 26 PA

2.12

PEC 25%Draw 23%UTR 52%

At lock: projected PEC 1.44–2.12 UTR · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 2–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

UTR win

76%

74% (no-vig)

Total

3.81

3.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.31 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

PEC 1.44–2.12 UTR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): UTR att +0.03 / def -0.03 · PEC att -0.29 / def -0.32 · model UTR 2.6–1.2 PEC
Home field
+0.3 goals to UTR
Record
UTR 3-2-4 · PEC 2-1-6
Market prior
Blended 80% toward UTR -155 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Koen Kostons
goals 4
Koen Kostons
goalsleaders 4

Artem Stepanov
goals 5
Artem Stepanov
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PEC	UTR
Goal Difference	-12	-10
Total Goals	10	16
Assists	8	11
Goals Against	22	26

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

K. Paredes anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTR
+260
28%
M. Broholm anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTR
+310
24%
J. Medic anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTR
+1000
9%
F. Pohl anytime goal
Anytime goal · UTR
+1200
8%
R. Thomas anytime goal
Anytime goal · PEC
+1400
7%

PEC Zwolle vs FC Utrecht prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected PEC Zwolle 1.4, FC Utrecht 2.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: FC Utrecht 52%, PEC Zwolle 25%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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