EredivisieSat 11:45 AM CTKoning Willem II Stadion

SC Cambuur at Willem II

Sat 11:45 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

55%

At lock CAM 1.87–1.56 WIL · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

R. El Arguioui · CAM
Midfielder
D. Haen · WIL
Forward

SC Cambuur

2-3-4

Form DWDWD · 13 PF · 21 PA

1.87

Projected

Willem II

0-2-7

Form DLLLD · 9 PF · 26 PA

1.56

CAM 44%Draw 24%WIL 32%

At lock: projected CAM 1.87–1.56 WIL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

WIL win

59%

50% (no-vig)

Total

3.13

3.5

Gap: +9 pts of win %, -0.37 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

CAM 1.87–1.56 WIL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): WIL att -0.38 / def -0.29 · CAM att -0.42 / def -0.33 · model WIL 1.8–1.3 CAM
Home field
+0.3 goals to WIL
Record
WIL 0-2-7 · CAM 2-3-4
Market prior
Blended 80% toward WIL +150 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Rafik El Arguioui
goals 4
Rafik El Arguioui
goalsleaders 4

Devin Haen
goals 3
Devin Haen
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CAM	WIL
Goal Difference	-8	-17
Total Goals	13	9
Assists	9	8
Goals Against	21	26

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

K. Boogaard anytime goal
Anytime goal · WIL
+550
15%
T. Vilhena anytime goal
Anytime goal · WIL
+650
13%
W. Asselman anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAM
+900
10%
H. ter Avest anytime goal
Anytime goal · WIL
+1000
9%
L. Jetten anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAM
+1100
8%
M. Dekker anytime goal
Anytime goal · WIL
+1500
6%
M. Costarelli anytime goal
Anytime goal · CAM
+1500
6%

Cambuur vs Willem II prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Cambuur 1.9, Willem II 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Willem II 32%, Cambuur 44%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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