EredivisieSat 2:00 PM CTADO Den Haag Stadium

Heerenveen at ADO Den Haag

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

56%

At lock HEE 1.89–1.51 ADO · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Trenskow · HEE
Forward
Y. Eduardo · ADO
Forward

Heerenveen

3-3-3

Form DLWDL · 15 PF · 11 PA

1.89

Projected

ADO Den Haag

1-3-5

Form DDDLL · 11 PF · 20 PA

1.51

HEE 46%Draw 24%ADO 30%

At lock: projected HEE 1.89–1.51 ADO · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ADO win

47%

38% (no-vig)

Total

3.21

3.5

Gap: +9 pts of win %, -0.29 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

HEE 1.89–1.51 ADO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ADO att -0.16 / def -0.15 · HEE att -0.06 / def +0.04 · model ADO 1.5–1.7 HEE
Home field
+0.3 goals to ADO
Record
ADO 1-3-5 · HEE 3-3-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward HEE +100 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jacob Trenskow
goals 4
Jacob Trenskow
goalsleaders 4

Yannick Eduardo
goals 3
Yannick Eduardo
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HEE	ADO
Goal Difference	4	-9
Total Goals	15	11
Assists	12	10
Goals Against	11	20

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Y. Eduardo anytime goal
Anytime goal · ADO
+175
36%
L. Machine anytime goal
Anytime goal · HEE
+225
31%
D. Bladi anytime goal
Anytime goal · HEE
+950
10%
M. Hilgers anytime goal
Anytime goal · HEE
+1300
7%

Heerenveen vs ADO Den Haag prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Heerenveen 1.9, ADO Den Haag 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: ADO Den Haag 30%, Heerenveen 46%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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