EredivisieSun 10:45 AM CTSparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Ajax Amsterdam at Sparta Rotterdam

TV · ESPN+

Sun 10:45 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

54%

At lock AJA 2.44–1.05 SPA · 0.01 goals under 3.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Brandt · AJA
Midfielder
M. Zonneveld · SPA
Forward

Ajax Amsterdam

5-3-1

Form DWLDD · 27 PF · 12 PA

2.44

Projected

Sparta Rotterdam

2-3-4

Form DDLLD · 16 PF · 22 PA

1.05

AJA 66%Draw 19%SPA 14%

At lock: projected AJA 2.44–1.05 SPA · most likely 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SPA win

27%

19% (no-vig)

Total

3.46

3.5

Gap: +8 pts of win %, -0.04 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

AJA 2.44–1.05 SPA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SPA att -0.24 / def -0.18 · AJA att +0.23 / def +0.24 · model SPA 1.2–2.3 AJA
Home field
+0.3 goals to SPA
Record
SPA 2-3-4 · AJA 5-3-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward AJA -230 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Julian Brandt
goals 6
Julian Brandt
goalsleaders 6

Milan Zonneveld
goals 6
Milan Zonneveld
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AJA	SPA
Goal Difference	15	-6
Total Goals	27	16
Assists	18	13
Goals Against	12	22

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

T. Arokodare anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+105
49%
J. Brandt anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+135
43%
V. Tsygankov anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+190
34%
O. Gloukh anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+190
34%
D. Klaassen anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+225
31%
O. Edvardsen anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+225
31%
R. Bounida anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+225
31%
A. Ouazane anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+250
29%
I. Babadi anytime goal
Anytime goal · SPA
+425
19%
J. Mokio anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+425
19%
Y. Bissouma anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+600
14%
T. Kehrer anytime goal
Anytime goal · AJA
+650
13%

Ajax vs Sparta prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Ajax 2.4, Sparta 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Sparta 14%, Ajax 66%, draw 19%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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