EPLFinalSelhurst Park

Liverpool at Crystal Palace

FT · Peacock

3–1

LiverpoolC Palace

Final

Liverpool

5-3-2

Form DLLWW · 14 PF · 10 PA

Final

Crystal Palace

2-1-7

Form DDLWL · 10 PF · 24 PA

LIV 43%Draw 24%CRY 33%

At lock: projected LIV 1.65–1.41 CRY

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2583153139

Called it

Most typical sim

LIV 2 – CRY 1

Final

LIV 3 – CRY 1

Winner: Liverpool (44%)
Spread: CRY +0.5 covers (56%)
Total: Under 3.5 (63%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

LIV 1.65–1.41 CRY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CRY att -0.25 / def -0.19 · LIV att +0.09 / def +0.06 · model CRY 1.1–1.7 LIV
Home field
+0.3 goals to CRY
Record
CRY 2-1-7 · LIV 5-3-2
Market prior
Blended 80% toward LIV -185 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
LIV	1	2	3
CRY	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 40'
Goal! Crystal Palace 0, Liverpool 1. Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool) header from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Dominik Szoboszlai with a cross following a set piece situation.
GOAL2H 54'
Goal! Crystal Palace 0, Liverpool 2. Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Bradley Barcola with a cross.
GOAL2H 89'
Goal! Crystal Palace 0, Liverpool 3. Alexander Isak (Liverpool) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Florian Wirtz following a fast break.
GOAL2H 90'+5'
Goal! Crystal Palace 1, Liverpool 3. Eddie Nketiah (Crystal Palace) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.

Game leaders

Florian Wirtz
totalshots 4
Jérémy Jacquet
Pass 36
Jérémy Jacquet
defensiveinterventions 14
Alisson Becker
SV 6

Yéremy Pino
totalshots 6
Daichi Kamada
Pass 43
Axel Disasi
defensiveinterventions 12
Dean Henderson
SV 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LIV	CRY
Fouls	18	10
Yellow Cards	4	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	3
Corner Kicks	7	4
Saves	6	5
Possession	46.9	53.1
SHOTS	20	19
ON GOAL	8	7
On Target %	0.4	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	1
Accurate Passes	275	328
Passes	353	410
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	9	6
Crosses	22	22
Cross %	0.4	0.3
Long Balls	63	61
Accurate Long Balls	35	27
Long Balls %	0.6	0.4
Blocked Shots	4	5
Effective Tackles	4	7
Tackles	10	13
Tackle %	0.4	0.5
Interceptions	14	7
Effective Clearances	29	23
Clearances	29	23

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

60%

At lock LIV 1.65–1.41 CRY · 0.4 goals under 3.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop A. Isak · LIV
A. Isak Over 3.5 shots
F. Wirtz · LIV
Midfielder
J. Jacquet · LIV
Defender
A. Becker · LIV
Goalkeeper
Y. Pino · CRY
Midfielder
D. Kamada · CRY
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · A. Isak Over 3.5 shots

-105Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Liverpool vs C Palace pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 60% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day