EPLFinalOld Trafford

Aston Villa at Manchester United

FT · USA Net

4–4

Aston VillaMan Utd

Final

Aston Villa

3-4-3

Form DLDLW · 14 PF · 17 PA

Final

Manchester United

1-5-4

Form DWLLL · 14 PF · 19 PA

AVL 29%Draw 23%MAN 47%

At lock: projected AVL 1.34–1.76 MAN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2599930758

Missed · off by 5

Most typical sim

AVL 1 – MAN 2

Final

AVL 4 – MAN 4

Winner: Man Utd (47%)
Spread: AVL +0.5 covers (53%)
Total: Under 3.5 (63%)
Score error (both teams)5

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

AVL 1.34–1.76 MAN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MAN att +0.09 / def -0.07 · AVL att -0.01 / def -0.08 · model MAN 1.8–1.4 AVL
Home field
+0.3 goals to MAN
Record
MAN 1-5-4 · AVL 3-4-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward MAN +100 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
AVL	2	2	4
MAN	2	2	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 1'
Goal! Manchester United 0, Aston Villa 1. Alysson (Aston Villa) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by John McGinn.
GOAL1H 4'
Goal! Manchester United 0, Aston Villa 2. Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal following a set piece situation.
GOAL1H 16'
Goal! Manchester United 1, Aston Villa 2. Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the centre of the goal.
GOAL1H 44'
Goal! Manchester United 2, Aston Villa 2. Youri Tielemans (Manchester United) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Noussair Mazraoui.
GOAL2H 48'
Goal! Manchester United 2, Aston Villa 3. John McGinn (Aston Villa) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the bottom left corner.
GOAL2H 53'
Goal! Manchester United 2, Aston Villa 4. Leon Goretzka (Aston Villa) left footed shot from very close range to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Nicolas Jackson following a set piece situation.
GOAL2H 90'+2'
Goal! Manchester United 3, Aston Villa 4. Joshua Zirkzee (Manchester United) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Patrick Dorgu with a cross.
GOAL2H 90'+6'
Goal! Manchester United 4, Aston Villa 4. Patrick Dorgu (Manchester United) header from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Bruno Fernandes with a cross following a corner.

Game leaders

Alysson
totalshots 3
Pau Torres
Pass 52
Victor Lindelöf
defensiveinterventions 17
Zion Suzuki
SV 5

Bruno Fernandes
totalshots 6
Kobbie Mainoo
Pass 61
Leny Yoro
defensiveinterventions 11
Senne Lammens
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AVL	MAN
Fouls	9	18
Yellow Cards	1	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	2
Corner Kicks	1	8
Saves	5	3
Possession	44.3	55.7
SHOTS	12	26
ON GOAL	6	9
On Target %	0.5	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	1	1
Accurate Passes	337	422
Passes	399	484
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	5
Crosses	5	30
Cross %	0.4	0.2
Long Balls	46	35
Accurate Long Balls	20	20
Long Balls %	0.4	0.6
Blocked Shots	2	7
Effective Tackles	6	14
Tackles	10	25
Tackle %	0.6	0.6
Interceptions	11	11
Effective Clearances	35	12
Clearances	35	12

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

59%

At lock AVL 1.34–1.76 MAN · 0.4 goals under 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop Z. Suzuki · AVL
Z. Suzuki Over 3.5 saves
Alysson · AVL
Forward
P. Torres · AVL
Defender
V. Lindelöf · AVL
Defender
B. Fernandes · MAN
Midfielder
K. Mainoo · MAN
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · Z. Suzuki Over 3.5 saves

-115Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Aston Villa vs Man Utd pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day