Crystal Palace at Coventry City
@Model projects CRY 1.20 – 1.62 COV · below the strong-play bar (edge -5.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
T. Mitchell · CRY
DefenderJ. Rudoni · COV
Midfielder
Projected prop · Jack Rudoni (COV) 0.36 goals · 0.30 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected COV score
At lock: projected CRY 1.20–1.62 COV · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2
Model vs market
Gap: +5 pts of win %, +0.32 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
CRY 1.20–1.62 COV · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): COV att -0.16 / def -0.16 · CRY att -0.25 / def -0.19 · model COV 1.6–1.2 CRY
- Home field+0.3 goals to COV
- RecordCOV 3-0-7 · CRY 2-1-7
Season leaders
- Tyrick Mitchellgoals 2
- Tyrick Mitchellgoalsleaders 2
- Jack Rudonigoals 3
- Jack Rudonigoalsleaders 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CRY | COV | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -14 | -9 |
| Total Goals | 10 | 10 |
| Assists | 6 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 24 | 19 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
C Palace vs Coventry prediction · Nov 21, 2026
The model projects C Palace 1.2, Coventry 1.6. Model win probability: Coventry 47%, C Palace 28%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day