EPLSat 6:30 AM CTEtihad Stadium

Fulham at Manchester City

FulhamMan City

Sat 6:30 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 3.5

-165 at lock60%

Model projects FUL 0.85 – 1.91 MNC · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.6%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

J. King · FUL
Midfielder
E. Haaland · MNC
Forward

Projected prop · Erling Haaland (MNC) 0.82 goals · 0.90 goals/game this season, × 0.91 for the projected MNC score

Line not posted yet

Fulham

2-4-4

Form DDLWW · 10 PF · 12 PA

0.85

Projected

Manchester City

7-0-3

Form DWLWL · 21 PF · 13 PA

1.91

FUL 16%Draw 22%MNC 62%

At lock: projected FUL 0.85–1.91 MNC · most likely 0–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

MNC win

73%

83% (no-vig)

Total

2.76

3.5

Gap: -10 pts of win %, -0.74 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

FUL 0.85–1.91 MNC · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MNC att +0.23 / def +0.23 · FUL att -0.21 / def +0.03 · model MNC 1.9–0.8 FUL
Home field
+0.3 goals to MNC
Record
MNC 7-0-3 · FUL 2-4-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Josh King
goals 2
Josh King
goalsleaders 2

Erling Haaland
goals 9
Erling Haaland
goalsleaders 9

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FUL	MNC
Goal Difference	-2	8
Total Goals	10	21
Assists	3	16
Goals Against	12	13

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Fulham vs Man City prediction · Nov 21, 2026

The model projects Fulham 0.8, Man City 1.9. Model win probability: Man City 62%, Fulham 16%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day