BelgiumSun 10:00 AM CTJan Breydel Stadium

Sint-Truidense at Club Brugge

Sun 10:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

56%

At lock STVV 1.01–2.65 BRU · 0.2 goals over 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

S. Bazdar · STVV
Forward
H. Vetlesen · BRU
Midfielder

Sint-Truidense

2-2-4

Form WWLLL · 15 PF · 16 PA

1.01

Projected

Club Brugge

7-0-1

Form DWWWW · 19 PF · 4 PA

2.65

STVV 12%Draw 17%BRU 71%

At lock: projected STVV 1.01–2.65 BRU · most likely 1–2 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 1–3

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

BRU win

83%

84% (no-vig)

Total

3.97

3.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.47 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 514 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2337. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

STVV 1.01–2.65 BRU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): BRU att +0.53 / def +0.32 · STVV att +0.05 / def -0.04 · model BRU 2.9–1.0 STVV
Home field
+0.3 goals to BRU
Record
BRU 7-0-1 · STVV 2-2-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward BRU -275 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Samed Bazdar
goals 5
Samed Bazdar
goalsleaders 5

Hugo Vetlesen
goals 4
Hugo Vetlesen
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STVV	BRU
Goal Difference	-1	15
Total Goals	15	19
Assists	12	12
Goals Against	16	4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

R. Vermant anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+110
48%
H. Vanaken anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+195
34%
C. Forbs anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+210
32%
S. Bazdar anytime goal
Anytime goal · STVV
+250
29%
W. Mike anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+270
27%
T. Koren anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+285
26%
L. Audoor anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+370
21%
F. Lemarechal anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+425
19%
B. Mechele anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+450
18%
N. Mbuku anytime goal
Anytime goal · STVV
+450
18%
K. Sabbe anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+700
13%
J. Seys anytime goal
Anytime goal · BRU
+700
13%

Sint-Truidense vs Club Brugge prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Sint-Truidense 1.0, Club Brugge 2.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Club Brugge 71%, Sint-Truidense 12%, draw 17%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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