Champions LeagueFinalVilla Park

Fenerbahce at Aston Villa

FT · Paramount+

Fenerbahce
0-1-1
Form LWWDD · 1 PF · 7 PA
0
Final
Aston Villa
2-0-0
Form DDWWL · 9 PF · 2 PA
6
FEN 29%Draw 22%AVL 49%

Model: FEN 1.46–1.93 AVL

The model

How this number was built

FEN 1.46–1.93 AVL · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

  • Attack / defense
    AVL +0.2 off · FEN -0.1 off, shrunk 14%
  • Home field
    +0.3 goals to AVL
  • Record
    AVL 2-0-0 · FEN 0-1-1
  • Market prior
    Blended 71% toward AVL -160 / total 3.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

1H2HT
FEN000
AVL336

How the goals went in

  • GOAL1H 12'

    Goal! Aston Villa 1, Fenerbahce 0. Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner following a corner.

  • GOAL1H 31'

    Goal! Aston Villa 2, Fenerbahce 0. Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Boubacar Kamara.

  • GOAL1H 39'

    Goal! Aston Villa 3, Fenerbahce 0. Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ross Barkley.

  • GOAL2H 68'

    Goal! Aston Villa 4, Fenerbahce 0. Ross Barkley (Aston Villa) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.

  • GOAL2H 72'

    Goal! Aston Villa 5, Fenerbahce 0. Ross Barkley (Aston Villa) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Ibrahim Mbaye.

  • GOAL2H 90'

    Goal! Aston Villa 6, Fenerbahce 0. Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa) right footed shot from very close range to the top left corner. Assisted by Alysson.

Game leaders

  • Oguz Aydin
    totalshots 5
  • Nathan Aké
    Pass 60
  • Milan Skriniar
    defensiveinterventions 12
  • Ederson
    SV 5
  • Nicolas Jackson
    totalshots 5
  • Pau Torres
    Pass 54
  • Victor Lindelöf
    defensiveinterventions 12
  • Zion Suzuki
    SV 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

FENAVL
Fouls612
Yellow Cards20
Red Cards00
Offsides31
Corner Kicks79
Saves54
Possession55.244.8
SHOTS1520
ON GOAL411
On Target %0.30.6
Penalty Goals00
Penalty Kicks Taken01
Accurate Passes424350
Passes470389
Pass Completion %0.90.9
Accurate Crosses55
Crosses2714
Cross %0.20.4
Long Balls2924
Accurate Long Balls2114
Long Balls %0.70.6
Blocked Shots64
Effective Tackles1010
Tackles1217
Tackle %0.80.6
Interceptions128
Effective Clearances928
Clearances928
Computer pick · Spread
FEN +0.5
52%

FEN 1.46–1.93 AVL

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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