Eyupspor at Amed SFK
FT
1–5
At lock: projected EYU 0.64–2.04 AMED
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 797862314
- Winner: Amed SFK (70%)
- Spread: EYU +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
EYU 0.64–2.04 AMED · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): AMED att +0.13 / def -0.09 · EYU att -0.41 / def -0.30 · model AMED 2.5–0.9 EYU
- Home field+0.3 goals to AMED
- RecordAMED 7-2-1 · EYU 1-0-9
- Market priorBlended 66% toward AMED -360 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EYU | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| AMED | 3 | 2 | 5 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 13'
Ermal Krasniqi (Amed SFK) Goal at 13'
- GOAL1H 35'
Gift Orban (Amed SFK) Goal at 35'
- GOAL1H 42'
Samuel Ballet (Amed SFK) Goal at 42'
- GOAL2H 51'
Samuel Ballet (Amed SFK) Goal at 51'
- GOAL2H 73'
Ahmed Abdullahi (Eyupspor) Goal at 73'
- RUN2H 83'
Samuel Ballet (Amed SFK) Penalty - Scored at 83'
Game leaders
- Ahmed Abdullahitotalshots 4
- Chandrel Géraud MassangaPass 45
- Lenny Pintordefensiveinterventions 4
- Emre BilginSV 2
- Samuel Ballettotalshots 6
- Mehmet YesilPass 62
- Umut Merasdefensiveinterventions 5
- Alban LafontSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| EYU | AMED | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 5 | 18 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Offsides | 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 7 |
| Saves | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 45.4 | 54.6 |
| SHOTS | 8 | 20 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 324 | 411 |
| Passes | 388 | 468 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 4 | 13 |
| Tackles | 9 | 13 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 15 | 17 |
At lock EYU 0.64–2.04 AMED · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Abdullahi · EYU
ForwardC. Massanga · EYU
MidfielderL. Pintor · EYU
ForwardE. Bilgin · EYU
GoalkeeperS. Ballet · AMED
ForwardM. Yesil · AMED
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Eyupspor vs Amed SFK pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 58% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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