Fenerbahce at Çorum FK
FT
5–0
At lock: projected FEN 1.56–1.33 COR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 697196600
- Winner: Fenerbahce (42%)
- Spread: COR +0.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FEN 1.56–1.33 COR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): COR att +0.00 / def -0.16 · FEN att +0.54 / def +0.22 · model COR 1.3–2.6 FEN
- Home field+0.3 goals to COR
- RecordCOR 5-1-5 · FEN 6-1-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward FEN -105 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FEN | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| COR | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 12'
Mason Greenwood (Fenerbahce) Goal at 12'
- GOAL1H 21'
Irfan Can Kahveci (Fenerbahce) Goal at 21'
- GOAL2H 56'
Irfan Can Kahveci (Fenerbahce) Goal at 56'
- GOAL2H 63'
Mason Greenwood (Fenerbahce) Goal at 63'
- GOAL2H 74'
Oguz Aydin (Fenerbahce) Goal at 74'
Game leaders
- Oguz Aydintotalshots 3
- Milan SkriniarPass 93
- Milan Skriniardefensiveinterventions 8
- EdersonSV 9
- Jesús Ramíreztotalshots 6
- Hrvoje SmolcicPass 48
- Hrvoje Smolcicdefensiveinterventions 7
- Marcos FelipeSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FEN | COR | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 7 |
| Saves | 9 | 2 |
| Possession | 60.8 | 39.2 |
| SHOTS | 10 | 22 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 8 |
| On Target % | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 557 | 329 |
| Passes | 617 | 382 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 7 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 5 |
| Tackles | 20 | 10 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 18 | 19 |
At lock FEN 1.56–1.33 COR · 0.4 goals over 2.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp R. Lukaku anytime goal · FEN
R. Lukaku anytime goalO. Aydin · FEN
ForwardM. Skriniar · FEN
DefenderEderson · FEN
GoalkeeperJ. Ramírez · COR
ForwardH. Smolcic · COR
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · R. Lukaku anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Fenerbahce vs Çorum FK pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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