Süper LigFinalRAMS Park

Amed SFK at Galatasaray

3–4

Amed SFKGalatasaray

Final

Amed SFK

7-2-2

Form LWWWD · 28 PF · 15 PA

Final

Galatasaray

9-1-1

Form WWWWW · 27 PF · 15 PA

AMED 16%Draw 19%GAL 65%

At lock: projected AMED 1.04–2.30 GAL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:57 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 747529457

Winner called · off by 4

Most typical sim

AMED 1 – GAL 2

Final

AMED 3 – GAL 4

Winner: Galatasaray (71%)
Spread: AMED +1.5 covers (51%)
Total: Under 3.5 (55%)
Score error (both teams)4

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

AMED 1.04–2.30 GAL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GAL att +0.47 / def +0.31 · AMED att +0.13 / def -0.09 · model GAL 2.9–1.1 AMED
Home field
+0.3 goals to GAL
Record
GAL 9-1-1 · AMED 7-2-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward GAL -235 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
AMED	0	3	3
GAL	2	2	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 7'
Rafael Leão (Galatasaray) Goal at 7'
OWN GOAL1H 45'
Alban Lafont (Amed SFK) Own Goal at 45'
GOAL2H 59'
Alexey Batrakov (Galatasaray) Goal at 59'
GOAL2H 62'
Dia Saba (Amed SFK) Goal at 62'
GOAL2H 65'
Gift Orban (Amed SFK) Goal at 65'
GOAL2H 80'
Baris Alper Yilmaz (Galatasaray) Goal at 80'
GOAL2H 90'+2'
Yira Sor (Amed SFK) Goal at 90'+2'

Game leaders

Dia Saba
totalshots 4
David Bates
Pass 45
David Bates
defensiveinterventions 5
Alban Lafont
SV 3

Rafael Leão
totalshots 4
Roland Sallai
Pass 47
Davinson Sánchez
defensiveinterventions 15
Ugurcan Çakir
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AMED	GAL
Fouls	11	8
Yellow Cards	3	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	8	3
Corner Kicks	6	3
Saves	3	2
Possession	43.8	56.2
SHOTS	14	17
ON GOAL	5	6
On Target %	0.4	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	296	401
Passes	372	487
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Cross %	0.0	0.0
Long Balls %	0.0	0.0
Blocked Shots	6	5
Effective Tackles	6	9
Tackles	9	15
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Effective Clearances	0	0
Clearances	15	30

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

55%

At lock AMED 1.04–2.30 GAL · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop L. Sané anytime goal · GAL
L. Sané anytime goal
D. Saba · AMED
Midfielder
D. Bates · AMED
Defender
A. Lafont · AMED
Goalkeeper
R. Leão · GAL
Forward
R. Sallai · GAL
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · L. Sané anytime goal

+175Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Amed SFK vs Galatasaray pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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