Süper LigFinalRecep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium

Besiktas at Kasimpasa

2–2

BesiktasKasimpasa

Final

Besiktas

6-1-3

Form WLDWD · 23 PF · 12 PA

Final

Kasimpasa

4-5-1

Form WDWWL · 17 PF · 11 PA

BES 48%Draw 26%KAS 27%

At lock: projected BES 1.53–1.07 KAS

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 731823030

Missed · off by 1

Most typical sim

BES 2 – KAS 1

Final

BES 2 – KAS 2

Winner: Besiktas (48%)
Spread: KAS +0.5 covers (52%)
Total: Under 2.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

BES 1.53–1.07 KAS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): KAS att -0.09 / def -0.01 · BES att +0.20 / def +0.19 · model KAS 1.2–1.6 BES
Home field
+0.3 goals to KAS
Record
KAS 4-5-1 · BES 6-1-3
Market prior
Blended 80% toward BES -185 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
BES	1	1	2
KAS	0	2	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 28'
Leandro Trossard (Besiktas) Goal at 28'
GOAL2H 47'
Dusan Vlahovic (Besiktas) Goal at 47'
GOAL2H 60'
Cláudio Winck (Kasimpasa) Goal at 60'
GOAL2H 87'
Marcus Rafferty (Kasimpasa) Goal at 87'

Game leaders

Leandro Trossard
totalshots 4
Emmanuel Agbadou
Pass 64
Emir Han Topcu
defensiveinterventions 4
Alexander Nübel
SV 4

Adrian Benedyczak
totalshots 5
Kerem Demirbay
Pass 54
Matei Ilie
defensiveinterventions 5
Andreas Gianniotis
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BES	KAS
Fouls	15	20
Yellow Cards	1	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	0
Corner Kicks	2	5
Saves	4	2
Possession	58.5	41.5
SHOTS	8	16
ON GOAL	4	6
On Target %	0.5	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	404	257
Passes	503	350
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.7
Cross %	0.0	0.0
Long Balls %	0.0	0.0
Blocked Shots	1	3
Effective Tackles	5	11
Tackles	12	15
Tackle %	0.4	0.7
Effective Clearances	0	0
Clearances	18	17

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

56%

At lock BES 1.53–1.07 KAS · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop O. Hyeon-Gyu anytime goal · BES
O. Hyeon-Gyu anytime goal
L. Trossard · BES
Forward
E. Agbadou · BES
Defender
E. Topcu · BES
Defender
A. Nübel · BES
Goalkeeper
A. Benedyczak · KAS
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · O. Hyeon-Gyu anytime goal

+130Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Besiktas vs Kasimpasa pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Süper Lig picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day