Serie AFinalNew Balance Arena

Parma at Atalanta

FT · Paramount+

3–0

ParmaAtalanta

Final

Parma

2-2-6

Form LWDLL · 9 PF · 17 PA

Final

Atalanta

3-2-5

Form WDLDD · 17 PF · 20 PA

PAR 12%Draw 20%ATA 68%

At lock: projected PAR 0.64–1.94 ATA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1772198078

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

PAR 1 – ATA 2

Final

PAR 3 – ATA 0

Winner: Atalanta (68%)
Spread: PAR +1.5 covers (57%)
Total: Under 2.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)4

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

PAR 0.64–1.94 ATA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATA att +0.09 / def -0.05 · PAR att -0.36 / def -0.09 · model ATA 1.7–0.9 PAR
Home field
+0.3 goals to ATA
Record
ATA 3-2-5 · PAR 2-2-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ATA -270 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
PAR	1	2	3
ATA	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 41'
Goal! Atalanta 0, Parma 1. Giovanni Fabbian (Parma) header from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Vincent Sierro with a cross following a corner.
OWN GOAL2H 47'
Own Goal by Davide Zappacosta, Atalanta. Atalanta 0, Parma 2.
GOAL2H 58'
Goal! Atalanta 0, Parma 3. Simone Lontani (Parma) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Giovanni Fabbian.

Game leaders

Mandela Keita
totalshots 1
Vincent Sierro
Pass 29
Mariano Troilo
defensiveinterventions 22
Giovanni Daffara
SV 6

Nikola Krstovic
totalshots 6
Giorgio Scalvini
Pass 90
Relja Obric
defensiveinterventions 13
Marco Carnesecchi
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PAR	ATA
Fouls	10	8
Yellow Cards	0	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	4
Corner Kicks	5	8
Saves	6	1
Possession	30.4	69.6
SHOTS	6	20
ON GOAL	3	6
On Target %	0.5	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	227	586
Passes	292	658
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	11
Crosses	12	44
Cross %	0.2	0.3
Long Balls	55	54
Accurate Long Balls	24	41
Long Balls %	0.4	0.8
Blocked Shots	0	6
Effective Tackles	12	10
Tackles	23	14
Tackle %	0.5	0.7
Interceptions	12	8
Effective Clearances	46	17
Clearances	46	17

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

58%

At lock PAR 0.64–1.94 ATA · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop N. Zalewski · ATA
N. Zalewski Over 2.5 shots
M. Keita · PAR
Midfielder
V. Sierro · PAR
Midfielder
M. Troilo · PAR
Defender
G. Daffara · PAR
Goalkeeper
N. Krstovic · ATA
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · N. Zalewski Over 2.5 shots

-120Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Parma vs Atalanta pick result · Nov 2, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 58% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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