Motherwell at Dundee United
FT
1–1
At lock: projected MOT 1.29–1.63 DUN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 9:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 622442078
- Winner: Dundee Utd (37%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MOT 1.29–1.63 DUN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): DUN att -0.25 / def -0.10 · MOT att -0.17 / def +0.05 · model DUN 1.3–1.3 MOT
- Home field+0.3 goals to DUN
- RecordDUN 4-5-3 · MOT 3-4-6
- Market priorBlended 65% toward DUN +110 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOT | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DUN | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- RUN1H 9'
Lukas Fadinger (Motherwell) Penalty - Scored at 9'
- GOAL1H 41'
Jesse Randall (Dundee United) Goal at 41'
Game leaders
- Emmanuel Longelototalshots 4
- Joseph HodgePass 60
- Tom Sparrowdefensiveinterventions 9
- Alex PaulsenSV 4
- Jesse Randalltotalshots 6
Zidane IqbalPass 58- Michael Forbesdefensiveinterventions 9
- Jack WaltonSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MOT | DUN | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 17 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 7 | 13 |
| Saves | 4 | 5 |
| Possession | 50.3 | 49.7 |
| SHOTS | 17 | 24 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 385 | 383 |
| Passes | 455 | 442 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 6 | 9 |
| Effective Tackles | 11 | 12 |
| Tackles | 16 | 20 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 34 | 31 |
At lock MOT 1.29–1.63 DUN · 0.6 goals under 3.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Randall · DUN
J. Randall anytime goalE. Longelo · MOT
DefenderJ. Hodge · MOT
MidfielderT. Sparrow · MOT
MidfielderA. Paulsen · MOT
GoalkeeperZ. Iqbal · DUN
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · J. Randall anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Motherwell vs Dundee Utd pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 60% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day