NHLFinal/SOUnited Center

Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks

Final/SO · ESPN+

5–4

JetsBlackhawks

Final

Shot chart · 11 goals (G)

Winnipeg Jets

11-8-3 · W7

71 PF · 76 PA

Final

Final/SO

Chicago Blackhawks

5-14-2 · L2

50 PF · 88 PA

WPG 68%CHI 32%

Model: WPG 3.74–2.53 CHI

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3369777548

Called it

Most typical sim

WPG 4 – CHI 3

Final

WPG 5 – CHI 4

Winner: Jets (69%)
Spread: CHI +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
A. Vlasic shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
N. Pionk shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1
J. Morrissey shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0
C. Bedard shots on goal	—	3	3	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WPG vs CHI

The model

How this number was built

WPG 3.74–2.53 CHI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -1.09 vs -0.20 · adj. shots -4.5 vs -0.4 · model CHI 2.7–3.5 WPG
Home field
+0.2 goals to CHI
Record
CHI 5-14-2 · WPG 11-8-3
Market prior
Blended 63% toward WPG -162 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	OT	OT	T
WPG	0	2	2	0	1	5
CHI	3	1	0	0	0	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 1:480–1
Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (3), Connor Bedard (11)
GOAL1st 9:070–2
Anton Frondell Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (5)
GOAL1st 19:560–3
Connor Bedard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (9), Sam Rinzel (7)
GOAL2nd 14:440–4
Frank Nazar Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (6), Sam Rinzel (8)
GOAL2nd 16:051–4
Mark Scheifele Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (5), Kyle Connor (9)
GOAL2nd 18:012–4
Kyle Connor Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (17)
GOAL3rd 0:553–4
Cole Perfetti Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (11), Mark Scheifele (18)
GOAL3rd 18:474–4
Gabriel Vilardi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (19), Neal Pionk (9)
GOALSO 0:002–1
Mark Scheifele Goal Wrist Shot
GOALSO 0:002–1
Kyle Connor Goal Backhand
GOALSO 0:002–1
Patrick Kane Goal Backhand

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playHit

WPG ML

-155 at lock63%

Model projected WPG 3.72 – 2.51 CHI at lock · edge +2.2%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop K. Connor · WPG
4 S · over 3.5
M. Barron · WPG
2 HT
C. Bedard · CHI
2 TK
T. Bauer · WPG
1 BS · 2 HT
I. Cole · CHI
3 BS · 2 TK
N. Daws · WPG
1 GA · 13 SA

Data-Driven Pick · K. Connor Under 3.5 SOG

Strong play-115Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Jets vs Blackhawks pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day