NHLFinal/SOT-Mobile Arena

Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights

Final/SO · ESPN+

3–2

PredatorsGolden Knights

Final

Shot chart · 7 goals (G)

Nashville Predators

11-4-5 · W7

62 PF · 55 PA

Final

Final/SO

Vegas Golden Knights

13-5-3 · L1

71 PF · 57 PA

NSH 31%VGK 69%

Model: NSH 2.43–3.73 VGK

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3487220881

Missed · off by 3

Most typical sim

NSH 2 – VGK 4

Final

NSH 3 – VGK 2

Winner: Golden Knights (70%)
Spread: NSH +1.5 covers (54%)
Total: Over 5.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)3

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
B. Skjei shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1
R. Andersson shots on goal	—	2	3	off 1
R. Josi shots on goal	—	2	3	off 1
S. Theodore shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NSH vs VGK

The model

How this number was built

NSH 2.43–3.73 VGK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.45 vs +0.33 · adj. shots +0.4 vs -4.4 · back-to-back: VGK, NSH · model VGK 3.2–2.6 NSH
Home field
+0.2 goals to VGK
Record
VGK 13-5-3 · NSH 11-4-5
Market prior
Blended 77% toward VGK -170 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	OT	OT	T
NSH	1	0	1	0	1	3
VGK	1	1	0	0	0	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 7:561–0
Ryan O'Reilly Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (10), Mavrik Bourque (5)
GOAL1st 11:191–1
Victor Olofsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (12), Tomas Hertl (7)
GOAL2nd 10:481–2
Rasmus Andersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (21), Parker Wotherspoon (1)
GOAL3rd 9:442–2
Ryan O'Reilly Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (7), Roman Josi (21)
GOALSO 0:002–1
Trevor Connelly Goal Wrist Shot
GOALSO 0:002–1
Filip Forsberg Goal Wrist Shot
GOALSO 0:002–1
Roman Josi Goal Wrist Shot

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playMiss

VGK ML

-185 at lock66%

Model projected NSH 2.27 – 3.55 VGK at lock · edge +0.9%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop J. Eichel · VGK
6 S · over 2.5
M. Bourque · NSH
Forward
I. Barbashev · VGK
4 HT · 2 TK
D. Hunt · NSH
1 HT
R. Andersson · VGK
2 BS · 1 HT
J. Saros · NSH
2 GA · 42 SA

Data-Driven Pick · J. Eichel Under 2.5 SOG

Strong play+100Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Predators vs Golden Knights pick result · Nov 13, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day