St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth
Final/SO · ESPN+
1–0Shot chart · 5 goals (G)
At lock: projected STL 2.53–3.78 UTA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3436888024
- Winner: Mammoth (70%)
- Spread: STL +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 6.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)6
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sergachev shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
| C. Parayko shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| M. Weegar shots on goal | — | 2 | 4 | off 2 |
| P. Broberg shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: STL vs UTA
The model
How this number was built
STL 2.53–3.78 UTA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.00 vs +0.10 · adj. shots -1.1 vs -4.0 · back-to-back: UTA, STL · model UTA 3.2–2.9 STL
- Home field+0.2 goals to UTA
- RecordUTA 10-8-2 · STL 9-8-2
- Market priorBlended 77% toward STL -135 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
GOALSO 0:003–2Vincent Trocheck Goal Wrist Shot
GOALSO 0:003–2Jake Neighbours Goal Backhand
- GOALSO 0:003–2
Michael Carcone Goal Snap Shot
- GOALSO 0:003–2
Jimmy Snuggerud Goal Snap Shot
- GOALSO 0:003–2
Connor McMichael Goal Snap Shot
Model projected STL 2.53 – 3.78 UTA at lock · edge +4.2%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop R. Thomas · STL
0 S · under 1.5J. Berggren · STL
2 TKD. But · UTA
1 BS · 1 HTJ. Barron · STL
DefensemanA. Duda · UTA
4 HT · 1 TKJ. Hofer · STL
29 SA
Data-Driven Pick · R. Thomas Under 1.5 SOG
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Blues vs Mammoth pick result · Nov 12, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day