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Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights

Final · TNT

3–5

MammothGolden Knights

Final

Shot chart · 8 goals (G)

Utah Mammoth

10-8-1 · L5

71 PF · 75 PA

Final

Vegas Golden Knights

13-5-2 · L1

71 PF · 57 PA

UTA 32%VGK 68%

Model: UTA 2.52–3.78 VGK

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3095665339

Called it

Most typical sim

UTA 3 – VGK 4

Final

UTA 3 – VGK 5

Winner: Golden Knights (69%)
Spread: UTA +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 6.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)1

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Sergachev shots on goal	—	2	4	off 2
S. Theodore shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
M. Weegar shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
N. Hanifin shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UTA vs VGK

The model

How this number was built

UTA 2.52–3.78 VGK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.45 vs +0.00 · adj. shots -2.4 vs -3.6 · back-to-back: VGK, UTA · model VGK 3.3–2.8 UTA
Home field
+0.2 goals to VGK
Record
VGK 13-5-2 · UTA 10-8-1
Market prior
Blended 77% toward VGK -155 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
UTA	1	1	1	3
VGK	1	3	1	5

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 2:150–1
Jack Eichel Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (18), Mark Stone (10)
GOAL1st 8:071–1
Lawson Crouse Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jack McBain (3), Andrew Peeke (5)
GOAL2nd 3:071–2
Victor Olofsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (17), Mitch Marner (19)
GOAL2nd 4:511–3
Ivan Barbashev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (3), Shea Theodore (5)
GOAL2nd 8:161–4
Ivan Barbashev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (4), Tomas Hertl (6)
GOAL2nd 16:392–4
Jack McBain Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (5), Andrew Peeke (6)
GOAL3rd 9:073–4
Dmitri Simashev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (4), Clayton Keller (20)
GOAL3rd 10:193–5
Brett Howden Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: William Karlsson (4), Mitch Marner (20)

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playHit

VGK ML

-125 at lock60%

Model projected UTA 2.59 – 3.79 VGK at lock · edge +4.7%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop S. Theodore · VGK
0 S · under 1.5
D. But · UTA
Forward
I. Barbashev · VGK
1 HT
N. DeSimone · UTA
1 HT · 1 TK
R. Andersson · VGK
1 BS · 1 TK
S. Cossa · UTA
5 GA · 28 SA

Data-Driven Pick · S. Theodore Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Mammoth vs Golden Knights pick result · Nov 11, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day