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Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres

Final · ESPN+

4–1

Golden KnightsSabres

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2 · L1

71 PF · 57 PA

Final

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3 · L4

55 PF · 70 PA

VGK 67%BUF 33%

At lock: projected VGK 3.78–2.59 BUF

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2858513007

Called it

Most typical sim

VGK 4 – BUF 3

Final

VGK 4 – BUF 1

Winner: Golden Knights (69%)
Spread: BUF +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 6.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
O. Power shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
S. Theodore shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
N. Hanifin shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1
R. Dahlin shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: VGK vs BUF

The model

How this number was built

VGK 3.78–2.59 BUF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.00 vs +0.45 · adj. shots -3.5 vs -1.1 · back-to-back: BUF, VGK · model BUF 2.9–3.2 VGK
Home field
+0.2 goals to BUF
Record
BUF 8-6-3 · VGK 12-5-2
Market prior
Blended 78% toward VGK -122 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
VGK	0	2	2	4
BUF	0	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL2nd 12:171–0
Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none
GOAL2nd 13:432–0
Jack Eichel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (10)
GOAL3rd 4:262–1
Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (1), Mattias Samuelsson (8)
GOAL3rd 5:433–1
Tomas Hertl Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (17)
GOAL3rd 10:004–1
Tomas Hertl Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (11), Shea Theodore (4)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

51%

At lock VGK 3.78–2.59 BUF · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop W. Karlsson · VGK
5 S · over 1.5
I. Barbashev · VGK
1 BS · 2 HT
Z. Benson · BUF
1 BS
R. Andersson · VGK
1 BS
R. Dahlin · BUF
1 BS
A. Hill · VGK
1 GA · 29 SA

Data-Driven Pick · W. Karlsson Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play-105Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Golden Knights vs Sabres pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day