NHLFinal/OTUBS Arena

New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders

Final/OT · ESPN+

5–4

DevilsIslanders

Final

Shot chart · 9 goals (G)

New Jersey Devils

12-5-0 · W2

80 PF · 61 PA

Final

Final/OT

New York Islanders

7-6-3 · W2

60 PF · 56 PA

NJ 69%NYI 31%

At lock: projected NJ 3.53–2.28 NYI

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2892215340

Called it

Most typical sim

NJ 4 – NYI 2

Final

NJ 5 – NYI 4

Winner: Devils (71%)
Spread: NYI +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 5.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)3

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Schaefer shots on goal	—	3	3	off 0
B. Horvat shots on goal	—	3	2	off -1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NJ vs NYI

The model

How this number was built

NJ 3.53–2.28 NYI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.23 vs +0.29 · adj. shots -4.1 vs +1.4 · back-to-back: NYI, NJ · model NYI 2.7–3.3 NJ
Home field
+0.2 goals to NYI
Record
NYI 7-6-3 · NJ 12-5-0
Market prior
Blended 78% toward NJ -148 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	OT	T
NJ	1	1	2	1	5
NYI	2	2	0	0	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 15:060–1
Anthony Duclair Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (4), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (7)
GOAL1st 15:231–1
Evan Rodrigues Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (5)
GOAL1st 17:141–2
Matthew Schaefer Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (8), Emil Heineman (6)
GOAL2nd 4:422–2
Declan Chisholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (13), Arseny Gritsyuk (5)
GOAL2nd 5:082–3
Simon Holmstrom Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (2), Bo Horvat (9)
GOAL2nd 11:542–4
Victor Eklund Goal (5) Poke, assists: Tony DeAngelo (4), Brayden Schenn (7)
GOAL3rd 6:083–4
Luke Evangelista Goal (4) Batted, assists: Brett Pesce (7), Nico Hischier (4)
GOAL3rd 13:424–4
Dougie Hamilton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (14), Luke Evangelista (6)
GOALOT 1:185–4
Jack Hughes Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (5)

Computer pick · Total

Over 5.5

54%

At lock NJ 3.53–2.28 NYI · 0.3 goals over 5.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop J. Hughes · NJ
1 G
J. Boqvist · NJ
3 HT
M. Chaffee · NYI
1 HT
D. Chisholm · NJ
2 BS · 1 HT
T. DeAngelo · NYI
1 BS
J. Allen · NJ
4 GA · 23 SA

Data-Driven Pick · J. Hughes anytime goal

+150Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Devils vs Islanders pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day