NHLFinalMadison Square Garden

Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers

Final · ESPN+

2–3

FlyersRangers

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Philadelphia Flyers

4-10-4 · W1

51 PF · 72 PA

Final

New York Rangers

9-7-1 · W2

64 PF · 57 PA

PHI 31%NYR 69%

At lock: projected PHI 2.22–3.49 NYR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2959472911

Called it

Most typical sim

PHI 2 – NYR 4

Final

PHI 2 – NYR 3

Winner: Rangers (71%)
Spread: PHI +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 5.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)1

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
J. Drysdale shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
T. Sanheim shots on goal	—	1	3	off 2
V. Gavrikov shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
A. Fox shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PHI vs NYR

The model

How this number was built

PHI 2.22–3.49 NYR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.16 vs -0.15 · adj. shots -4.6 vs -4.0 · back-to-back: NYR, PHI · model NYR 3.2–2.6 PHI
Home field
+0.2 goals to NYR
Record
NYR 9-7-1 · PHI 4-10-4
Market prior
Blended 78% toward NYR -148 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
PHI	0	2	0	2
NYR	1	0	2	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 4:390–1
Gabe Perreault Goal (5) Deflected, assists: J.T. Miller (9), Marcus Pettersson (3)
GOAL2nd 10:101–1
Simon Benoit Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (2)
GOAL2nd 12:092–1
Noel Acciari Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (6), Jamie Drysdale (7)
GOAL3rd 13:522–2
Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (10), Adam Fox (18)
GOAL3rd 15:212–3
Tye Kartye Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (19), Oliver Bjorkstrand (3)

Computer pick · Total

Over 5.5

53%

At lock PHI 2.22–3.49 NYR · 0.2 goals over 5.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop A. Fox · NYR
1 S · under 1.5
N. Acciari · PHI
1 HT
O. Bjorkstrand · NYR
1 BS · 1 TK
S. Benoit · PHI
2 BS · 1 HT
J. Woll · PHI
3 GA · 29 SA
D. Garand · NYR
2 GA · 25 SA

Data-Driven Pick · A. Fox Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play-120Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Flyers vs Rangers pick result · Nov 5, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day