Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers
Final · ESPN+
5–3Shot chart · 8 goals (G)
At lock: projected DET 2.18–3.44 FLA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1030444084
- Winner: Panthers (71%)
- Spread: DET +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 5.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Seider shots on goal | — | 2 | 2 | off 0 |
| S. Jones shots on goal | — | 2 | 0 | off -2 |
| G. Forsling shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
| J. Faulk shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DET vs FLA
The model
How this number was built
DET 2.18–3.44 FLA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.03 vs -0.37 · adj. shots -2.1 vs -1.9 · back-to-back: FLA, DET · model FLA 3.3–2.9 DET
- Home field+0.2 goals to FLA
- RecordFLA 8-5-2 · DET 7-5-3
- Market priorBlended 78% toward FLA -185 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 5:261–0Carter Mazur Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (9)
GOAL1st 14:191–1Sam Reinhart Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5), Sandis Vilmanis (2)
- GOAL2nd 1:262–1
Alex DeBrincat Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (7), Justin Faulk (5)
- GOAL2nd 15:252–2
Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Garnet Hathaway (1), Lars Eller (7)
- GOAL3rd 2:083–2
Justin Faulk Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (2), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (7)
- GOAL3rd 2:534–2
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (10), Andrew Copp (3)
- GOAL3rd 16:404–3
Sam Bennett Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (17), Brady Tkachuk (8)
- GOAL3rd 19:575–3
Emmitt Finnie Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (10)
At lock DET 2.18–3.44 FLA · FLA by 1.3 goals vs DET +1.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp S. Jones · FLA
0 · needs 0.5 moreV. Arvidsson · DET
1 BSS. Bennett · FLA
2 HTB. Chiarot · DET
2 HTA. Ekblad · FLA
2 HTD. Tarasov · DET
3 GA · 26 SA
Data-Driven Pick · S. Jones Over 0.5 ast
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Red Wings vs Panthers pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DET +1.5, with a 58% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day