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Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks

Final · ESPN+

3–6

SenatorsDucks

Final

Shot chart · 9 goals (G)

Ottawa Senators

9-6-1 · W2

68 PF · 61 PA

Final

Anaheim Ducks

6-7-1 · L2

73 PF · 76 PA

OTT 68%ANA 32%

At lock: projected OTT 3.88–2.58 ANA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 997035941

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

OTT 4 – ANA 3

Final

OTT 3 – ANA 6

Winner: Senators (70%)
Spread: ANA +1.5 covers (53%)
Total: Over 6.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)4

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
T. Luneau shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
T. Stützle shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
J. LaCombe shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1
J. Sanderson shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: OTT vs ANA

The model

How this number was built

OTT 3.88–2.58 ANA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.14 vs +0.33 · adj. shots -3.6 vs -2.6 · back-to-back: ANA, OTT · model ANA 3.0–3.4 OTT
Home field
+0.2 goals to ANA
Record
ANA 6-7-1 · OTT 9-6-1
Market prior
Blended 78% toward OTT -122 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
OTT	3	0	0	3
ANA	0	3	3	6

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 6:001–0
Philip Tomasino Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (5), Drake Batherson (9)
GOAL1st 7:022–0
Claude Giroux Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (8), Artem Zub (4)
GOAL1st 17:373–0
Michael Amadio Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (7), Jake Sanderson (9)
GOAL2nd 1:353–1
Cutter Gauthier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none
GOAL2nd 3:333–2
Judd Caulfield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Warren (5), Leo Carlsson (15)
GOAL2nd 19:183–3
Judd Caulfield Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Tristan Luneau (6), Nikita Nesterenko (2)
GOAL3rd 1:503–4
Cutter Gauthier Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (14), Leo Carlsson (16)
GOAL3rd 2:263–5
Cutter Gauthier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (17), Mikael Granlund (7)
GOAL3rd 15:193–6
Roger McQueen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Judd Caulfield (4), Tristan Luneau (7)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

47%

At lock OTT 3.88–2.58 ANA · 0.04 goals under 6.5 · 47% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop T. Stutzle · OTT
0 G
M. Amadio · OTT
Forward
L. Carlsson · ANA
Forward
T. Chabot · OTT
4 BS · 1 HT
D. Helleson · ANA
2 BS · 1 HT
J. Johansson · OTT
6 GA · 33 SA

Data-Driven Pick · T. Stutzle anytime goal

+130Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Senators vs Ducks pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 47% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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