NFLFinalLucas Oil Stadium

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Final · Fox

27–23

CowboysColts

Final

Dallas Cowboys

4-5 · W1

246 PF · 236 PA

Final

Indianapolis Colts

2-7 · L5

184 PF · 249 PA

DAL 62%IND 38%

At lock: projected DAL 27.71–23.73 IND

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:56 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1328996418

Called it

Most typical sim

DAL 28 – IND 24

Final

DAL 27 – IND 23

Winner: Cowboys (64%)
Spread: IND +4.5 covers (50%)
Total: Over 51.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
D. Jones pass yds	—	202	180	off -22
T. Warren rec yds	—	40	44	off 4
D. Prescott pass yds	—	253	335	off 82
K. Allen rec yds	—	44	26	off -18
J. Taylor rush yds	—	79	46	off -33
J. Williams rush yds	—	68	101	off 33
C. Lamb rec yds	—	82	195	off 113
G. Pickens rec yds	—	71	0	off -71

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DAL vs IND

The model

How this number was built

DAL 27.71–23.73 IND · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
IND -2.5 vs DAL +1.9 · pred margin -3.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) IND off -0.08, def stop -0.04 · DAL off +0.07, def stop -0.09 · model IND 25.2–25.5 DAL
Home field
+2.4 pts to IND
Record
IND 2-7 · DAL 4-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward DAL -4.5 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DAL	3	14	3	7	27
IND	7	0	10	6	23

How the points were scored

FGQ1 11:453–0
Brandon Aubrey 45 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 6:133–7
Seth McGowan 2 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)
TDQ2 14:0810–7
Jake Ferguson 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)
TDQ2 0:2117–7
CeeDee Lamb 44 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)
FGQ3 6:1217–10
Spencer Shrader 47 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 2:1020–10
Brandon Aubrey 28 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 1:1720–17
Ashton Dulin 55 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)
FGQ4 5:5620–20
Spencer Shrader 59 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 1:3720–23
Spencer Shrader 50 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 1:0827–23
Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

DAL	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Dak Prescott #4	21/34	335	9.9	2	0	3-6	80.6	114.2
Team	21/34	329	9.9	2	0	3-6	--	114.2

Rushing

DAL	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Javonte Williams #33	20	101	5.1	1	15
Tyler Goodson #32	12	77	6.4	0	13
Dak Prescott #4	2	1	0.5	0	2
Team	34	179	5.3	1	15

Receiving

DAL	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	TGTS
CeeDee Lamb #88	10	195	19.5	1	48	16
Ryan Flournoy #19	2	53	26.5	0	46	3
Jonathan Mingo #18	1	23	23.0	0	23	3
Javonte Williams #33	4	23	5.8	0	13	5
Jake Ferguson #87	2	21	10.5	1	11	2
Brevyn Spann-Ford #89	2	20	10.0	0	16	3
Tyler Goodson #32	0	0	0.0	0	0	1
Jordan Hudson #81	0	0	0.0	0	0	1
Team	21	335	16.0	2	48	34

Fumbles

DAL	FUM	LOST	REC
Dak Prescott #4	1	1	0
CeeDee Lamb #88	1	1	0
Shemar James #50	0	0	1
Team	2	2	1

Defense

DAL	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Quinnen Williams #92	7	3	0	3	0	1
Rashan Gary #7	6	5	1	2	0	1
Malik Hooker #24	5	5	0	0	0	0
Shemar James #50	5	4	0	0	0	0
Otito Ogbonnia #91	5	2	0	0	0	0
James Houston #41	4	3	0	0	0	0
DaRon Bland #26	4	3	0	0	1	0
P.J. Locke #1	4	2	0	0	2	0
Caleb Downs #13	3	2	1	1	2	1
Dee Winters #53	3	2	0	0	0	0
Kenny Clark #97	2	1	0	0	0	1
Cobie Durant #2	2	1	0	0	0	0
Marist Liufau #35	2	1	0	0	0	0
Ameer Speed #23	1	1	0	0	0	0
Juanyeh Thomas #43	1	1	0	0	0	0
Brevyn Spann-Ford #89	1	1	0	0	0	0
Tyler Guyton #60	1	1	0	0	0	0
Shavon Revel Jr. #28	1	1	0	0	0	0
Elijah Garcia #93	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	58	39	2	6	5	4

Interceptions

DAL	INT	YDS	TD
Caleb Downs #13	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

DAL	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Camden Brown #80	3	78	26.0	29	0
Team	3	78	26.0	29	0

Punt returns

DAL	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jonathan Mingo #18	2	22	11.0	12	0
Team	2	22	11.0	12	0

Kicking

DAL	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Brandon Aubrey #17	2/3	66.7	45	3/3	9
Team	2/3	66.7	45	3/3	9

Punting

DAL	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Bryan Anger #5	5	224	44.8	0	3	52
Team	5	224	44.8	0	3	52

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DAL	IND
1st Downs	22	15
Passing 1st downs	11	7
Rushing 1st downs	7	6
1st downs from penalties	4	2
3rd down efficiency	5-16	3-13
4th down efficiency	1-1	0-0
Total Plays	71	59
Total Yards	508	271
Yards per Play	7.2	4.6
Total Drives	14	14
Passing	329	166
Comp/Att	21/34	20/34
Yards per pass	8.9	4.6
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Sacks-Yards Lost	3-6	2-14
Rushing	179	105
Rushing Attempts	34	23
Yards per rush	5.3	4.6
Red Zone (Made-Att)	2-3	1-2
Penalties	14-153	9-67
Turnovers	2	2
Fumbles lost	2	1
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	35:43	24:17

Computer pick · Spread

IND +6

53%

At lock DAL 27.71–23.73 IND · DAL by 4.0 pts vs IND +6 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop Daniel Jones · IND
180 YDS · needs 18.5 more
Dak Prescott · DAL
21/34 C/ATT · 335 YDS
Javonte Williams · DAL
20 CAR · 101 YDS
Jonathan Taylor · IND
13 CAR · 46 YDS
CeeDee Lamb · DAL
10 REC · 195 YDS
Ashton Dulin · IND
1 REC · 55 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · D. Jones Over 198.5 pass yds

-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Cowboys vs Colts pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is IND +6, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day