NCAAFFinalJoe Aillet Stadium

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Final · ESPN+

31–63

Southern MissLouisiana Tech

Final

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

3-7 · L2

269 PF · 365 PA

Final

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

8-2 · W7

365 PF · 215 PA

USM 14%LT 86%

At lock: projected USM 19.28–36.85 LT

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 4:31 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3336079674

Winner called · off by 38

Most typical sim

USM 19 – LT 37

Final

USM 31 – LT 63

Winner: Louisiana Tech (86%)
Spread: LT -17.5 covers (50%)
Total: Under 56.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)38

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: USM vs LT

The model

How this number was built

USM 19.28–36.85 LT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
LT -0.1 vs USM -14.9 · pred margin +17.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.5 vs -2.6 · model LT 37.3–19.9 USM
Home field
+3.0 pts to LT
Record
LT 8-2 · USM 3-7
Market prior
Blended 66% toward LT -17.5 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
USM	3	7	7	14	31
LT	21	21	7	14	63

How the points were scored

TDQ1 13:160–7
Dylone Brooks 1 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)
FGQ1 5:283–7
Creighton Wilbanks 44 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 4:103–14
Jay Wilkerson 49 Yd pass from Marcus Calwise Jr. (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ1 0:583–21
Sergio Snider 2 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ2 14:2110–21
Jamarice Wilder 53 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)
TDQ2 10:3110–28
Talyn Shettron 9 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ2 9:1410–35
Jadon Mayfield 36 Yd Interception Return (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ2 7:1610–42
Jordan McRae 89 Yd Interception Return (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ3 10:2110–49
Brayden Bockler 2 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ3 5:1317–49
Grant Page 7 Yd pass from John White (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)
TDQ4 12:4617–56
Rayshun Hurt 55 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ4 11:4224–56
Mario Sanders 41 Yd pass from John White (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)
TDQ4 8:4824–63
Eli Finley 12 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ4 2:1131–63
MaLik Caswell 32 Yd Interception Return (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

USM	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
John White #12	21/43	220	5.1	2	4	7.0
Team	21/43	220	5.1	2	4	--

Rushing

USM	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Steven Robinson #14	17	94	5.5	0	39
Jamarice Wilder #6	11	83	7.5	1	53
Dusty Zimmer #36	1	12	12.0	0	12
Mario Sanders #1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Robert Henderson #21	2	6	3.0	0	5
John White #12	6	-18	-3.0	0	2
Team	38	186	4.9	1	53

Receiving

USM	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mario Sanders #1	8	119	14.9	1	41
Grant Page #13	3	35	11.7	1	21
Steven Robinson #14	3	22	7.3	0	18
Jeremiah Beck Jr. #88	2	16	8.0	0	13
Davis Dalton #11	2	14	7.0	0	9
Preston Kilgore #81	2	8	4.0	0	8
Jamarice Wilder #6	1	6	6.0	0	6
Team	21	220	10.5	2	41

Fumbles

USM	FUM	LOST	REC
John White #12	1	1	0
Grant Page #13	0	0	1
Team	1	1	1

Defense

USM	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
Wesley Edison #35	10	4	0	1.5	2	0	0
Mathis Haygood #13	7	2	0	0	0	0	0
Landon Sylvie #25	5	3	0	0	0	0	0
Champ Lewis #1	5	2	0	0.5	0	0	0
Jyaire Brown #3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
MaLik Caswell #18	3	2	0	0	0	0	1
Michael Robinson III #24	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
Laquan Robinson #12	3	1	0	0	1	0	0
Kobi Albert #22	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
A'mari Wilson #11	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Marrio Williams Jr. #34	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Zachariah Keith #31	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nasim Cairo #5	2	0	0.5	0.5	0	0	0
Jameer Lewis #9	2	0	0.5	0.5	1	0	0
Baron Taylor #26	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kameron Cyprien #7	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
John White #12	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Reed Harradine #96	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Martin #6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Preston Kilgore #81	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Hiroshi Carr #23	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Lassiter #2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Cam'ron Hoyte #99	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Avery Sledge #33	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
Team	62	28	1	3	5	1	1

Interceptions

USM	INT	YDS	TD
MaLik Caswell #18	1	32	1
Team	1	32	1

Punt returns

USM	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
AJ Little #8	2	16	8.0	10	0
Team	2	16	8.0	10	0

Kicking

USM	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Creighton Wilbanks #40	1/1	100.0	44	4/4	7
Team	1/1	100.0	44	4/4	7

Punting

USM	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Dusty Zimmer #36	6	279	46.5	1	0	64
Team	6	279	46.5	1	0	64

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	USM	LT
1st Downs	20	23
3rd down efficiency	4-16	3-11
4th down efficiency	2-3	1-1
Total Yards	406	495
Passing	220	350
Comp/Att	21/43	26/38
Yards per pass	5.1	9.2
Rushing	186	145
Rushing Attempts	38	27
Yards per rush	4.9	5.4
Penalties	7-72	11-104
Turnovers	5	2
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	4	1
Possession	30:35	29:25

Lean · SpreadNot a strong playHit

LT -17.5

-108 at lock50%

Model projected USM 19.28 – 36.85 LT at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

John White · USM
21/43 C/ATT · 220 YDS
Blake Baker · LT
21/28 C/ATT · 236 YDS
Steven Robinson · USM
17 CAR · 94 YDS
Rayshun Hurt · LT
6 CAR · 88 YDS
Mario Sanders · USM
8 REC · 119 YDS
Eli Finley · LT
6 REC · 104 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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