Georgia Southern Eagles at Georgia State Panthers
Final · ESPN+
34–17
At lock: projected GASO 30.38–26.03 GAST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2668103935
- Winner: GA Southern (61%)
- Spread: GAST +6 covers (52% vs 46%, push 2%)
- Total: Over 56.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: GASO vs GAST
The model
How this number was built
GASO 30.38–26.03 GAST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGAST -7.5 vs GASO -2.0 · pred margin -4.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.6 vs +3.3 · model GAST 27.4–28.3 GASO
- Home field+3.0 pts to GAST
- RecordGAST 5-5 · GASO 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward GASO -5.5 / total 55.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 7 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
| GAST | 14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:180–7
Qwantavius Wiggins 3 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)
- TDQ1 4:307–7
Tyrese Woodgett 1 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- TDQ1 0:387–14
Lanear McCrary Jr. 7 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)
- TDQ2 14:4614–14
River Helms 52 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- FGQ2 5:0417–14
Tripp Bryant 42 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:2524–14
Josh Dallas 13 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- FGQ3 7:5824–17
Samer Layous 37 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 3:4427–17
Tripp Bryant 41 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 4:1134–17
Weston Bryan 54 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| GASO | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Max Johnson #7 | 16/22 | 203 | 9.2 | 2 | 1 | 20.2 |
 Weston Bryan #9 | 1/1 | 41 | 41.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 17/23 | 244 | 10.6 | 2 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| GASO | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taeo Todd #35 | 10 | 77 | 7.7 | 0 | 23 |
 David Mbadinga #6 | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 | 14 |
Weston Bryan #9 | 3 | 62 | 20.7 | 1 | 54 |
 Ty Cummings #20 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 |
 Tyrese Woodgett #27 | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 | 3 |
 Josh Dallas #19 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Team | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Max Johnson #7 | 3 | -18 | -6.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 36 | 199 | 5.5 | 2 | 54 |
Receiving
| GASO | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Taylor #88 | 6 | 92 | 15.3 | 0 | 41 |
 River Helms #87 | 4 | 75 | 18.8 | 1 | 52 |
 Andre Greene Jr. #18 | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 | 24 |
Josh Dallas #19 | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 | 13 |
David Mbadinga #6 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 17 | 244 | 14.4 | 2 | 52 |
Fumbles
| GASO | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Max Johnson #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Josh Dallas #19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| GASO | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Tyson #1 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jakyri Jones #6 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eli Anders #97 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Anthony Bynum #4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chace Calicut #22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Diego Aviles #5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Jackson #17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Festus Davies #9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 MJ Stroud #18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tracy Hill Jr. #12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
River Helms #87 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kebba Secka #11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Moore #93 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aaron Sears #2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Elijah Fears #94 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chance Gamble #31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ethan Johnson #43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Latrell Bullard #57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Devin Collier #29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JaMari Whitehead #34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Allen Jr. #30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zay Hilliard #21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 70 | 32 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| GASO | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kam Mikell #85 | 2 | 60 | 30.0 | 37 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 60 | 30.0 | 37 | 0 |
Punt returns
| GASO | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Dallas #19 | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| GASO | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tripp Bryant #95 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 42 | 4/4 | 10 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 42 | 4/4 | 10 |
Punting
| GASO | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alex Smith #25 | 3 | 114 | 38.0 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
| Team | 3 | 114 | 38.0 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GASO | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 13 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-13 | 5-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 443 | 221 |
| Passing | 244 | 75 |
| Comp/Att | 17/23 | 14/19 |
| Yards per pass | 10.6 | 3.9 |
| Rushing | 199 | 146 |
| Rushing Attempts | 36 | 40 |
| Yards per rush | 5.5 | 3.7 |
| Penalties | 10-84 | 6-65 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 27:06 | 32:54 |
Model projected GASO 30.38 – 26.03 GAST at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Max Johnson · GASO
16/22 C/ATT · 203 YDSAyden Pereira · GAST
14/19 C/ATT · 75 YDSTaeo Todd · GASO
10 CAR · 77 YDSLanear McCrary Jr. · GAST
13 CAR · 86 YDSAlex Taylor · GASO
6 REC · 92 YDSDJ Riles · GAST
2 REC · 33 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
GA Southern vs Georgia St pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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