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Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalBrooks Stadium (SC)

Old Dominion Monarchs at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Final · ESPN+

Old Dominion21–8Coastal
Old DominionCoastal
Final
Old Dominion Monarchs
3-7 · W1
168 PF · 258 PA
21
Final
Final
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
3-6 · W1
250 PF · 243 PA
8
ODU 37%CCU 63%

At lock: projected ODU 20.13–25.53 CCU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 1:16 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2550513507

Missed · off by 19
Most typical sim
ODU 20 – CCU 26
Final
ODU 21 – CCU 8
  • Winner: Coastal (62%)
  • Spread: ODU +6.5 covers (53%)
  • Total: Over 44.5 (56%)
  • Score error (both teams)19

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ODU vs CCU

The model

How this number was built

ODU 20.13–25.53 CCU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    CCU -12.1 vs ODU -14.9 · pred margin +5.8
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.7 vs -1.5 · model CCU 23.6–22.2 ODU
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to CCU
  • Record
    CCU 3-6 · ODU 3-7
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward CCU -6.5 / total 43.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ODU1470021
CCU06028

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 5:057–0

    Quinn Henicle 2 Yd Run (Andrew Nelms Kick)

  • TDQ1 4:2814–0

    Mario Thompson 42 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Nelms Kick)

  • FGQ2 9:0014–3

    Nico Cavanillas Alti 30 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ2 0:2321–3

    Leon Haughton Jr. 6 Yd pass from Jaxon Potter (Andrew Nelms Kick)

  • FGQ2 0:0021–6

    Nico Cavanillas Alti 44 Yd Field Goal

  • SFQ4 13:2221–8

    Team Safety

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

ODUC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Jaxon Potter
#2
17/301505.01118.9
Quinn Henicle
#10
4/44511.30096.7
Team21/341955.711--

Rushing

ODUCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Devin Roche
#3
18462.608
Maurki James
#5
9151.705
Quinn Henicle
#10
3134.3116
Trey Hall
#6
2105.009
Team
1-1-1.000
Jaxon Potter
#2
2-14-7.000
Team35692.0116

Receiving

ODURECYDSAVGTDLONG
Leon Haughton Jr.
#86
66711.2120
Josh Rodriguez
#8
6538.8013
Kendall Harris
#7
3237.709
Zialis Blackmon
#14
2199.5012
Maurki James
#5
11616.0016
Devin Roche
#3
2136.507
TJ Johnson
#11
144.004
Team211959.3120

Fumbles

ODUFUMLOSTREC
Mario Thompson
#0
001
Malachi Harris
#88
001
Team002

Defense

ODUTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Zion Frink
#1
5401000
Jackson Forrest
#18
5300100
Daevon Iles
#2
4400000
Brandon Crutchfield
#5
4401000
Lucas Struck
#19
4300110
Mario Easterly
#3
4100000
Ja'Mez Drummer
#32
3322000
Javen Gibson
#4
3101000
Malachi Harris
#88
3100000
Chris Forbes
#90
3000010
Gage Sawyers
#41
3000000
Koa Naotala
#10
2000000
DeAndre Lynch
#9
2000.5020
Lorenzo McFadden-Pressley
#94
2000000
Mario Thompson
#0
1100001
Tavares Murray Jr.
#29
1100100
Justin Watts
#26
1100000
Talan Babin
#42
1000000
Josh Rodriguez
#8
1000.5000
Kollin Collier
#11
1000.5000
Jorian Haynes
#23
1000000
DeVeion McLilley-Bulo
#17
1000.5000
Team552727341

Interceptions

ODUINTYDSTD
Ja'Mez Drummer
#32
120
Zion Frink
#1
100
Brandon Crutchfield
#5
100
Tavares Murray Jr.
#29
100
Team420

Kick returns

ODUNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Je'Hahj Sherrill
#15
24924.5250
Team24924.5250

Punt returns

ODUNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Devin Roche
#3
2115.5110
Team2115.5110

Kicking

ODUFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Andrew Nelms
#99
0/00.003/33
Team0/00.003/33

Punting

ODUNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Ian Brandt
#96
830638.30454
Team830638.30454

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

ODUCCU
1st Downs1715
3rd down efficiency7-162-15
4th down efficiency0-11-3
Total Yards264263
Passing195243
Comp/Att21/3419/40
Yards per pass5.76.1
Rushing6920
Rushing Attempts3527
Yards per rush2.00.7
Penalties5-454-28
Turnovers16
Fumbles lost02
Interceptions thrown14
Possession31:5928:01
Computer pick · Spread
ODU +7.5
53%

At lock ODU 20.13–25.53 CCU · CCU by 5.4 pts vs ODU +7.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit
Players

  • Jaxon Potter · ODU

    17/30 C/ATT · 150 YDS

  • Deuce Bailey · CCU

    17/33 C/ATT · 233 YDS

  • Devin Roche · ODU

    18 CAR · 46 YDS

  • Jaden Allen-Hendrix · CCU

    5 CAR · 24 YDS

  • Leon Haughton Jr. · ODU

    6 REC · 67 YDS

  • Karmello English · CCU

    5 REC · 57 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Old Dominion vs Coastal pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ODU +7.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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